Curaçao vs Panama Prediction & Betting Tips 09/11/2026

Curaçao vs Panama preview

In the match between Curaçao and Panama, the 1X2 probabilities show Curaçao at 39%, a draw at 29%, and Panama at 32%. The most likely scoreline is 1-0 in favor of Curaçao, which has a 10% chance of occurring. Both teams to score stands at 52%, indicating a decent likelihood of goals from both sides.

Curaçao's expected goals are 1.32, while Panama's are slightly lower at 1.17. Recent form reveals Curaçao with a record of D-W-W-W-L-D, and Panama at L-L-L-W-W-D. The confidence grade for this match is C, suggesting that while there are promising indicators, unexpected outcomes could arise based on recent performances.

Curaçao vs Panama: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
Source	Curaçao	Draw	Panama
Model	39%	29%	32%
Market	—	—	—
Published	39%	29%	32%
Edge	—	—	—

Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).

Curaçao and Panama expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.32Curaçao

1.17Panama

Total expected goals: 2.50
Attack rating (Curaçao / Panama): 1.15 / 0.85
Defence rating (Curaçao / Panama): 0.87 / 0.67

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Curaçao vs Panama score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 9.5% 8.4% 5.7% 2.2% 0.8% 1 9.6% 14.1% 7.5% 2.9% 1.1% 2 7.2% 8.5% 5.0% 1.9% 0.7% 3 3.2% 3.7% 2.2% 0.9% 0.3% 4+ 1.4% 1.6% 1.0% 0.4% 0.1%

Rows: Curaçao goals. Columns: Panama goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Curaçao vs Panama goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 90%

Over 1.5 72%

Over 2.5 46%

Over 3.5 24%

Both teams to score: 52%
No goals (0–0): 10%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Curaçao vs Panama

Published probability and fair odds per market
Market	Selection	Probability	Fair odds
1X2	Curaçao	39%	2.58
	Draw	29%	3.39
	Panama	32%	3.15
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	46%	2.20
	Under 2.5	54%	1.84
Both teams to score	Yes	52%	1.92
	No	48%	2.08
Double chance	1X (Curaçao or draw)	68%	1.46
	12 (either side)	71%	1.42
	X2 (draw or Panama)	61%	1.63
Handicap -1	Curaçao win by 2+	18%	5.49
	Push (exactly one goal)	21%	—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

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Where to bet on this match in Kenya

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