Jamaica vs Mexico Prediction & Betting Tips 09/11/2026

Jamaica vs Mexico preview

In the CONCACAF Nations League match between Jamaica and Mexico, the 1X2 probabilities show Jamaica at 24%, a draw at 34%, and Mexico at 42%. The most likely scoreline from our model is 0-1, which occurs at a rate of 15%.

Jamaica's expected goals stand at 0.79, while Mexico's are higher at 1.13. The recent form indicates Jamaica has 3 wins and 2 losses in their last 5 matches, while Mexico has 6 wins in a row. With a confidence grade of C, factors that could alter the outcome include Jamaica's ability to improve their scoring or Mexico's potential to underperform. The chances for Over 2.5 goals are at 30%, and both teams to score is at 38%.

Jamaica vs Mexico: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
Source	Jamaica	Draw	Mexico
Model	24%	34%	42%
Market	—	—	—
Published	24%	34%	42%
Edge	—	—	—

Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.13 vs 0.79.
Better recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 3 for the opposition.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).

Jamaica and Mexico expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

0.79Jamaica

1.13Mexico

Total expected goals: 1.91
Attack rating (Jamaica / Mexico): 0.85 / 1.11
Defence rating (Jamaica / Mexico): 0.64 / 0.54

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Jamaica vs Mexico score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 16.1% 15.3% 9.4% 3.5% 1.3% 1 10.3% 14.4% 7.4% 2.8% 1.0% 2 4.6% 5.1% 2.9% 1.1% 0.4% 3 1.2% 1.3% 0.8% 0.3% 0.1% 4+ 0.3% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0%

Rows: Jamaica goals. Columns: Mexico goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Jamaica vs Mexico goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 84%

Over 1.5 58%

Over 2.5 30%

Over 3.5 13%

Both teams to score: 38%
No goals (0–0): 16%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Jamaica vs Mexico

Published probability and fair odds per market
Market	Selection	Probability	Fair odds
1X2	Jamaica	24%	4.15
	Draw	34%	2.97
	Mexico	42%	2.37
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	30%	3.34
	Under 2.5	70%	1.43
Both teams to score	Yes	38%	2.63
	No	62%	1.61
Double chance	1X (Jamaica or draw)	58%	1.73
	12 (either side)	66%	1.51
	X2 (draw or Mexico)	76%	1.32
Handicap -1	Mexico win by 2+	18%	5.45
	Push (exactly one goal)	24%	—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

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