Atletico-MG vs Boca Juniors Prediction & Betting Tips 21/11/2026

Atletico-MG vs Boca Juniors preview

Atletico-MG faces Boca Juniors with a 23% chance of winning compared to Boca's 46%. The most likely scoreline is 0-1, occurring 14% of the time according to our model. Atletico-MG's recent form shows six games without a win, while Boca Juniors has won four of their last five matches.

The expected goals for Atletico-MG is 0.85, while Boca Juniors has an expected goals figure of 1.32. This suggests Boca Juniors may find it easier to score. However, if Atletico-MG can improve their performance or if both teams manage to find the net, the predictions could change, impacting the outcomes for Over 2.5 goals and both teams to score.

Atletico-MG vs Boca Juniors: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
Source	Atletico-MG	Draw	Boca Juniors
Model	23%	31%	46%
Market	—	—	—
Published	23%	31%	46%
Edge	—	—	—

Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.32 vs 0.85.
Better recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).

Atletico-MG and Boca Juniors expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

0.85Atletico-MG

1.32Boca Juniors

Total expected goals: 2.17
Attack rating (Atletico-MG / Boca Juniors): 0.93 / 1.28
Defence rating (Atletico-MG / Boca Juniors): 1.07 / 0.66

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Atletico-MG vs Boca Juniors score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 12.7% 13.8% 9.9% 4.4% 1.9% 1 8.5% 14.1% 8.4% 3.7% 1.6% 2 4.1% 5.5% 3.6% 1.6% 0.7% 3 1.2% 1.5% 1.0% 0.4% 0.2% 4+ 0.3% 0.4% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1%

Rows: Atletico-MG goals. Columns: Boca Juniors goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Atletico-MG vs Boca Juniors goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 87%

Over 1.5 65%

Over 2.5 37%

Over 3.5 17%

Both teams to score: 43%
No goals (0–0): 13%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Atletico-MG vs Boca Juniors

Published probability and fair odds per market
Market	Selection	Probability	Fair odds
1X2	Atletico-MG	23%	4.37
	Draw	31%	3.24
	Boca Juniors	46%	2.16
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	37%	2.71
	Under 2.5	63%	1.58
Both teams to score	Yes	43%	2.31
	No	57%	1.76
Double chance	1X (Atletico-MG or draw)	54%	1.86
	12 (either side)	69%	1.45
	X2 (draw or Boca Juniors)	77%	1.30
Handicap -1	Boca Juniors win by 2+	22%	4.49
	Push (exactly one goal)	24%	—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

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Where to bet on this match in Kenya

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Atletico-MG and Boca Juniors recent form

Atletico-MG 0W 1D 5L

Boca Juniors 5W 0D 1L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Atletico-MG at home

Record (W-D-L): 5-1-0
Win rate: 83%
Goals for / match: 2.33
Goals against / match: 0.83
Clean sheets: 3 of 6

They have won 6 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 1.7 goals per match.
They average 2.5 goals per game at home against 0.8 on the road.
They have kept 4 clean sheets in 11 matches.
Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
They have converted 3 of 4 penalties (75%).

Boca Juniors away

Record (W-D-L): 2-1-1
Win rate: 50%
Goals for / match: 2.00
Goals against / match: 0.75
Clean sheets: 1 of 4

They have won 4 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
They average 2.0 goals per game on the road against 1.2 at home.
They have kept 3 clean sheets in 7 matches.
Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.

League matches this season before kick-off: Atletico-MG at home only, Boca Juniors away only.

Before and after this match

Atletico-MG, previous: Mirassol vs Atletico-MG prediction
Boca Juniors, previous: Banfield vs Boca Juniors prediction

Prediction snapshot Boca Juniors to win Predicted score 0 – 1 C Bet on Boca Juniors