Updated

Brazil Serie A · Matchday 35

Mirassol vs Atletico-MG

· José Maria de Campos Maia, Mirassol· Referee S. Sampaio

Alin prediction Mirassol to win

Cblended with market odds

Predicted score 1 – 0

14% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
MirassolDrawAtletico-MG
  • WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.36 vs 0.84.
  • RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Mirassol is the favourite, not a value bet.
Best market odds
Mirassol2.01 Draw3.70 Atletico-MG4.10

Price as of

Expected return at 2.01: -3.1% per unit staked

18+ · T&Cs apply · best price across 10 bookmakers, each at its own last update; the highlighted price is our pick.

Mirassol vs Atletico-MG preview

In the match between Mirassol and Atletico-MG, the 1X2 probabilities show Mirassol at 47%, while Atletico-MG sits at 25%. The most likely scoreline is 1-0, with a 14% chance according to our model. Mirassol's expected goals are 1.36, significantly higher than Atletico-MG's 0.84, indicating a potential edge for the home side.

However, the recent form could impact the outcome. Mirassol has a mixed record with W-L-D-W-L-D, while Atletico-MG is struggling with D-L-L-L-L-L. Additionally, both teams to score has a 44% chance, which suggests that while Mirassol may dominate, Atletico-MG could still find the net.

Mirassol vs Atletico-MG: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceMirassolDrawAtletico-MG
Model48%30%22%
Market48%26%25%
Published48%27%24%
Edge0%+1%-1%
  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.36 vs 0.84.
  • Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.01, recorded — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -3.1% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).

Mirassol vs Atletico-MG odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Mirassol, 23 snapshots since 2026-11-03.

Opened 2.50Now 1.95 -0.55
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Mirassol2.501.95-0.55
Draw3.393.58+0.19
Atletico-MG2.753.74+0.99

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Mirassol and Atletico-MG expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.36Mirassol
0.84Atletico-MG
Total expected goals
2.21
Attack rating (Mirassol / Atletico-MG)
0.90 / 0.87
Defence rating (Mirassol / Atletico-MG)
0.92 / 0.99

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Mirassol vs Atletico-MG score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 12.2% 8.0% 3.9% 1.1% 0.3% 1 13.7% 13.9% 5.3% 1.5% 0.4% 2 10.2% 8.6% 3.6% 1.0% 0.3% 3 4.6% 3.9% 1.7% 0.5% 0.1% 4+ 2.1% 1.8% 0.8% 0.2% 0.1%

Rows: Mirassol goals. Columns: Atletico-MG goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Mirassol vs Atletico-MG goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 88%
Over 1.5 66%
Over 2.5 38%
Over 3.5 18%
Both teams to score
44%
No goals (0–0)
12%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Mirassol vs Atletico-MG

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Mirassol48%2.07
Draw27%3.65
Atletico-MG24%4.10
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.538%2.63
Under 2.562%1.61
Both teams to scoreYes44%2.29
No56%1.78
Double chance1X (Mirassol or draw)76%1.32
12 (either side)73%1.38
X2 (draw or Atletico-MG)52%1.93
Handicap -1Mirassol win by 2+24%4.25
Push (exactly one goal)24%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Compare the market for this pick

Where to bet on this match in Kenya

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Mirassol and Atletico-MG recent form

Mirassol 2W 2D 2L
Atletico-MG 0W 1D 5L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Mirassol at home

Record (W-D-L)
7-6-4
Win rate
41%
Goals for / match
1.41
Goals against / match
1.29
Clean sheets
3 of 17
  • They have won 10 of their 34 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
  • They average 1.4 goals per game at home against 0.9 on the road.
  • They have kept 3 clean sheets in 34 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 9 of 34 matches.
  • They have converted 3 of 6 penalties (50%).
  • 30% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Atletico-MG away

Record (W-D-L)
4-3-10
Win rate
24%
Goals for / match
1.00
Goals against / match
1.29
Clean sheets
3 of 17
  • They have won 14 of their 34 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
  • They average 1.6 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
  • They have kept 8 clean sheets in 34 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 11 of 34 matches.
  • 38% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

League matches this season before kick-off: Mirassol at home only, Atletico-MG away only.

Expected lineups

Mirassol lineup · 4-2-3-1

  1. 22 Walter
  2. 6 Reinaldo
  3. 2 Lucas Oliveira
  4. 34 João Victor
  5. 32 Igor Formiga
  6. 27 Denilson
  7. 25 Neto Moura
  8. 77 Alesson
  9. 7 Shaylon
  10. 96 Carlos Eduardo
  11. 30 Bruno Santos

Bench: Willian Machado, André Luis, Chico, Victor Luis, Fernandinho, Gustavo Silva, Daniel Borges, José Aldo, Eduardo, Wallisson Luiz, Thomazella, Edson Carioca

Atletico-MG lineup · 4-2-3-1

  1. 22 Everson
  2. 6 Renan Lodi
  3. 4 Ruan
  4. 3 Léo Duarte
  5. 2 Natanael
  6. 15 Kevin Castaño
  7. 17 Igor Gomes
  8. 11 Bernard
  9. 7 Fred
  10. 28 Tomás Cuello
  11. 9 Mateo Cassierra

Bench: Gabriel Delfim, Alexsander, Gustavo Scarpa, Vitor Hugo, Cauã Campos Soares, Robert Alves, Samuel Lima Barros, Índio, Mamady Cissé, Gutte, Pedro Tocantins, Dudu

Mirassol vs Atletico-MG head-to-head

Last 3 meetings: Mirassol 0 · draws 1 · Atletico-MG 2.

MirassolDrawsAtletico-MG
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-05-16Atletico-MG3-1MirassolBrazil Serie A
2025-09-28Atletico-MG1-0MirassolBrazil Serie A
2025-04-26Mirassol2-2Atletico-MGBrazil Serie A

Other Matchday 35 fixtures

Before and after this match

Prediction snapshot Mirassol to win Predicted score 1 – 0 C Bet on Mirassol
Our pick: Mirassol to win 18+ Bet Now