Chapecoense-sc vs Mirassol preview
In the upcoming match between Chapecoense-sc and Mirassol, the 1X2 probabilities show Mirassol at 44%, compared to Chapecoense-sc's 29%. The most likely scoreline is 0-1, which aligns with the expected goals of 1.15 for Chapecoense-sc and 1.26 for Mirassol.
Both teams to score stands at 50%, while Over 2.5 goals is at 43%. Chapecoense-sc's recent form includes 1 draw and 4 losses, while Mirassol has 2 wins and 2 draws in their last 5 matches. A potential upset could occur if Chapecoense-sc improves their scoring, given their recent struggles.
Chapecoense-sc vs Mirassol: model vs market
| Source | Chapecoense-sc | Draw | Mirassol |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 32% | 30% | 38% |
| Market | 27% | 27% | 46% |
| Published | 29% | 28% | 44% |
| Edge | +1% | +1% | -2% |
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.13, recorded — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -6.9% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Chapecoense-sc vs Mirassol odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Mirassol, 18 snapshots since 2026-10-26.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Chapecoense-sc | 3.00 | 3.45 | +0.45 |
| Draw | 3.60 | 3.49 | -0.11 |
| Mirassol | 2.20 | 2.06 | -0.14 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Chapecoense-sc and Mirassol expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.41
- Attack rating (Chapecoense-sc / Mirassol)
- 0.78 / 0.83
- Defence rating (Chapecoense-sc / Mirassol)
- 1.45 / 0.96
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Chapecoense-sc vs Mirassol score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Chapecoense-sc goals. Columns: Mirassol goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Chapecoense-sc vs Mirassol goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 50%
- No goals (0–0)
- 10%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Chapecoense-sc vs Mirassol
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Chapecoense-sc | 29% | 3.50 |
| Draw | 28% | 3.60 | |
| Mirassol | 44% | 2.29 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 43% | 2.31 |
| Under 2.5 | 57% | 1.76 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 50% | 1.99 |
| No | 50% | 2.01 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Chapecoense-sc or draw) | 56% | 1.78 |
| 12 (either side) | 72% | 1.38 | |
| X2 (draw or Mirassol) | 71% | 1.40 | |
| Handicap -1 | Mirassol win by 2+ | 17% | 5.82 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Chapecoense-sc and Mirassol recent form
Chapecoense-sc
1W 1D 4L
Mirassol
2W 2D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Chapecoense-sc at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-5-7
- Win rate
- 20%
- Goals for / match
- 1.40
- Goals against / match
- 2.27
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 15
- They have won 4 of their 32 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They average 1.4 goals per game at home against 0.6 on the road.
- They have failed to score in 11 of 32 matches.
- They have converted 2 of 3 penalties (67%).
Mirassol away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-4-10
- Win rate
- 12%
- Goals for / match
- 0.81
- Goals against / match
- 1.56
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 16
- They have won 9 of their 33 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They average 1.4 goals per game at home against 0.8 on the road.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 33 matches.
- They have failed to score in 9 of 33 matches.
- They have converted 2 of 4 penalties (50%).
- 30% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Chapecoense-sc at home only, Mirassol away only.
Injuries & availability
Chapecoense-sc absences
-
Heitor
hamstring injury
- Mauricio Garcez inactive
-
Rafael Carvalheira
knee injury
-
Robert Conceicao
knee injury
-
Vinicius Balieiro
knee injury
Mirassol absences
- Bruno Santos suspended
-
Edson Carioca
yellow cards
-
Jose Aldo
muscle injury
-
Negueba
knee injury
Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider; confirmed line-ups appear about 40 minutes before kick-off.
Chapecoense-sc vs Mirassol head-to-head
Last 5 meetings: Chapecoense-sc 0 · draws 1 · Mirassol 4.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-10 | Mirassol | 1-1 | Chapecoense-sc | Brazil Serie A |
| 2024-11-24 | Mirassol | 1-0 | Chapecoense-sc | Serie B |
| 2024-08-05 | Chapecoense-sc | 0-1 | Mirassol | Serie B |
| 2023-07-29 | Chapecoense-sc | 0-1 | Mirassol | Serie B |
| 2023-04-15 | Mirassol | 1-0 | Chapecoense-sc | Serie B |
Other Matchday 34 fixtures
- RB Bragantino vs Santos 2026-11-02
- Internacional vs Coritiba 2026-11-04
- Flamengo v Gremio — match page 2026-11-04
- Atletico Paranaense vs Vasco DA Gama 2026-11-04
- Botafogo v Atletico-MG — match page 2026-11-05
- Sao Paulo vs Corinthians 2026-11-05
- Palmeiras vs Remo — team news & stats 2026-11-05
- Cruzeiro v Bahia — match page 2026-11-06
Before and after this match
- Chapecoense-sc, previous: RB Bragantino v Chapecoense-sc analysis
- Mirassol, previous: Corinthians vs Mirassol: odds and pick