Cruzeiro vs Bahia preview
In the match between Cruzeiro and Bahia, the 1X2 probabilities show Cruzeiro at 55%, while Bahia stands at 21%. The most likely scoreline predicted is 2-1, with a 10% chance. Cruzeiro's expected goals are 2.11, compared to Bahia's 1.15, indicating a stronger attacking performance.
However, recent form could impact the outcome. Cruzeiro has won 4 of their last 6 matches, while Bahia has only managed 2 wins in their last 6 games. With a 63% chance for Over 2.5 goals and a 61% chance for both teams to score, the match could still yield unexpected results if Bahia finds their scoring touch.
Cruzeiro vs Bahia: model vs market
| Source | Cruzeiro | Draw | Bahia |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 58% | 22% | 19% |
| Market | 55% | 23% | 21% |
| Published | 56% | 23% | 21% |
| Edge | +1% | 0% | -1% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.11 vs 1.15.
- Better recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.78, recorded — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: +0.0% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Cruzeiro vs Bahia odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Cruzeiro, 14 snapshots since 2026-10-28.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cruzeiro | 1.84 | 1.69 | -0.15 |
| Draw | 3.75 | 4.05 | +0.30 |
| Bahia | 3.92 | 4.37 | +0.45 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Cruzeiro and Bahia expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.26
- Attack rating (Cruzeiro / Bahia)
- 1.31 / 1.08
- Defence rating (Cruzeiro / Bahia)
- 1.01 / 1.06
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Cruzeiro vs Bahia score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Cruzeiro goals. Columns: Bahia goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Cruzeiro vs Bahia goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 61%
- No goals (0–0)
- 5%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Cruzeiro vs Bahia
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Cruzeiro | 56% | 1.78 |
| Draw | 23% | 4.36 | |
| Bahia | 21% | 4.79 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 63% | 1.58 |
| Under 2.5 | 37% | 2.72 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 61% | 1.64 |
| No | 39% | 2.56 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Cruzeiro or draw) | 79% | 1.26 |
| 12 (either side) | 77% | 1.30 | |
| X2 (draw or Bahia) | 44% | 2.28 | |
| Handicap -1 | Cruzeiro win by 2+ | 37% | 2.73 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Cruzeiro and Bahia recent form
Cruzeiro
5W 0D 1L
Bahia
2W 1D 3L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Cruzeiro at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 9-4-3
- Win rate
- 56%
- Goals for / match
- 1.69
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 5 of 16
- They have won 17 of their 33 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
- They have kept 8 clean sheets in 33 matches.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 33 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
- They have converted 4 of 5 penalties (80%).
- 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Bahia away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 6-5-5
- Win rate
- 38%
- Goals for / match
- 1.38
- Goals against / match
- 1.44
- Clean sheets
- 4 of 16
- They have won 14 of their 33 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They have kept 9 clean sheets in 33 matches.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 33 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
- They have converted 8 of 11 penalties (73%).
- 38% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Cruzeiro at home only, Bahia away only.
Cruzeiro vs Bahia head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: Cruzeiro 5 · draws 3 · Bahia 2.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-10 | Bahia | 1-2 | Cruzeiro | Brazil Serie A |
| 2025-09-15 | Bahia | 1-2 | Cruzeiro | Brazil Serie A |
| 2025-04-18 | Cruzeiro | 3-0 | Bahia | Brazil Serie A |
| 2024-10-19 | Cruzeiro | 1-1 | Bahia | Serie A |
| 2024-06-23 | Bahia | 4-1 | Cruzeiro | Serie A |
| 2023-10-25 | Cruzeiro | 3-0 | Bahia | Serie A |
| 2023-06-10 | Bahia | 2-2 | Cruzeiro | Serie A |
| 2022-07-23 | Cruzeiro | 1-0 | Bahia | Serie B |
| 2022-04-09 | Bahia | 2-0 | Cruzeiro | Serie B |
| 2019-11-03 | Cruzeiro | 1-1 | Bahia | Serie A |
Other Matchday 34 fixtures
- Chapecoense-sc vs Mirassol — team news & stats 2026-11-03
- Internacional vs Coritiba 2026-11-04
- Flamengo v Gremio — match page 2026-11-04
- Atletico Paranaense vs Vasco DA Gama 2026-11-04
- Botafogo v Atletico-MG — match page 2026-11-05
- Sao Paulo vs Corinthians 2026-11-05
- Palmeiras vs Remo — team news & stats 2026-11-05
- Vitoria vs Fluminense — team news & stats 2026-11-06
Before and after this match
- Cruzeiro, previous: Atletico-MG vs Cruzeiro: odds and pick
- Bahia, previous: Bahia vs Sao Paulo: odds and pick