Cruzeiro vs Palmeiras preview
In the upcoming match between Cruzeiro and Palmeiras, the 1X2 probabilities show Palmeiras at 40%, Cruzeiro at 33%, and a draw at 27%. The most likely scoreline from our model is 1-2, with a 9% chance. Both teams to score has a 58% probability, while Over 2.5 goals stands at 53%.
Cruzeiro's recent form includes 4 wins and 1 loss, while Palmeiras has 2 wins, 1 draw, and 2 losses. The expected goals are close, with Cruzeiro at 1.37 and Palmeiras at 1.44. The confidence grade for this match is C, indicating some uncertainty. If either team fails to convert chances or if the match ends in a draw, these predictions could be off.
Cruzeiro vs Palmeiras: model vs market
| Source | Cruzeiro | Draw | Palmeiras |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 35% | 28% | 38% |
| Market | 33% | 27% | 40% |
| Published | 33% | 27% | 40% |
| Edge | +1% | 0% | -1% |
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.42, recorded — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -4.3% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Cruzeiro vs Palmeiras odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Palmeiras, 26 snapshots since 2026-11-02.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cruzeiro | 2.70 | 2.85 | +0.15 |
| Draw | 3.42 | 3.44 | +0.02 |
| Palmeiras | 2.45 | 2.33 | -0.12 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Cruzeiro and Palmeiras expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.81
- Attack rating (Cruzeiro / Palmeiras)
- 1.40 / 1.28
- Defence rating (Cruzeiro / Palmeiras)
- 1.06 / 0.64
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Cruzeiro vs Palmeiras score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Cruzeiro goals. Columns: Palmeiras goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Cruzeiro vs Palmeiras goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 58%
- No goals (0–0)
- 7%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Cruzeiro vs Palmeiras
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Cruzeiro | 33% | 3.01 |
| Draw | 27% | 3.67 | |
| Palmeiras | 40% | 2.53 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 53% | 1.88 |
| Under 2.5 | 47% | 2.14 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 58% | 1.72 |
| No | 42% | 2.39 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Cruzeiro or draw) | 60% | 1.65 |
| 12 (either side) | 73% | 1.37 | |
| X2 (draw or Palmeiras) | 67% | 1.50 | |
| Handicap -1 | Palmeiras win by 2+ | 18% | 5.44 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 19% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Cruzeiro and Palmeiras recent form
Cruzeiro
5W 0D 1L
Palmeiras
3W 1D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Cruzeiro at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 10-4-3
- Win rate
- 59%
- Goals for / match
- 1.76
- Goals against / match
- 1.06
- Clean sheets
- 5 of 17
- They have won 17 of their 33 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
- They have kept 8 clean sheets in 33 matches.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 33 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
- They have converted 4 of 5 penalties (80%).
- 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Palmeiras away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 8-7-2
- Win rate
- 47%
- Goals for / match
- 1.53
- Goals against / match
- 0.71
- Clean sheets
- 9 of 17
- They have won 20 of their 33 league games this season, scoring 1.7 goals per match.
- They have kept 16 clean sheets in 33 matches.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 33 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 5 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 5 penalties (60%).
- 38% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Cruzeiro at home only, Palmeiras away only.
Cruzeiro vs Palmeiras head-to-head
Last 3 meetings: Cruzeiro 1 · draws 2 · Palmeiras 0.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-17 | Palmeiras | 1-1 | Cruzeiro | Brazil Serie A |
| 2025-10-26 | Palmeiras | 0-0 | Cruzeiro | Brazil Serie A |
| 2025-06-01 | Cruzeiro | 2-1 | Palmeiras | Brazil Serie A |
Other Matchday 35 fixtures
- Coritiba vs Santos — team news & stats 2026-11-18
- Remo vs Chapecoense-sc 2026-11-18
- Flamengo vs Atletico Paranaense — team news & stats 2026-11-18
- Gremio vs Bahia 2026-11-19
- Corinthians v Botafogo — match page 2026-11-19
- Vasco DA Gama vs Internacional — team news & stats 2026-11-19
- Vitoria v RB Bragantino — match page 2026-11-19
- Sao Paulo v Fluminense — match page 2026-11-20
Before and after this match
- Cruzeiro, previous: Cruzeiro vs Bahia prediction
- Palmeiras, previous: Vasco DA Gama v Palmeiras analysis
- Palmeiras, next: Palmeiras vs Estudiantes L.P. prediction