Corinthians vs Botafogo preview
In the fixture between Corinthians and Botafogo, the 1X2 probabilities show Corinthians at 50%, draw at 27%, and Botafogo at 23%. The most likely scoreline is 1-0, which has a 12% chance of occurring. Corinthians' expected goals stand at 1.43, while Botafogo's is lower at 0.91.
Corinthians' recent form includes 2 draws and 3 losses, while Botafogo has 2 wins and 3 losses in their last 6 matches. Both teams to score has a 47% chance, and Over 2.5 goals sits at 42%. A potential factor that could affect the outcome is the recent head-to-head record, where Corinthians have not won in the last 3 meetings against Botafogo.
Corinthians vs Botafogo: model vs market
| Source | Corinthians | Draw | Botafogo |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 48% | 29% | 23% |
| Market | 51% | 26% | 23% |
| Published | 50% | 27% | 23% |
| Edge | -1% | +1% | 0% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.43 vs 0.91.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.90, recorded — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -4.2% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Corinthians vs Botafogo odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Corinthians, 26 snapshots since 2026-11-02.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corinthians | 1.88 | 1.82 | -0.06 |
| Draw | 3.54 | 3.60 | +0.06 |
| Botafogo | 3.90 | 4.10 | +0.20 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Corinthians and Botafogo expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.34
- Attack rating (Corinthians / Botafogo)
- 0.82 / 0.75
- Defence rating (Corinthians / Botafogo)
- 1.15 / 1.13
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Corinthians vs Botafogo score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Corinthians goals. Columns: Botafogo goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Corinthians vs Botafogo goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 47%
- No goals (0–0)
- 11%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Corinthians vs Botafogo
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Corinthians | 50% | 1.98 |
| Draw | 27% | 3.73 | |
| Botafogo | 23% | 4.39 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 42% | 2.41 |
| Under 2.5 | 58% | 1.71 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 47% | 2.14 |
| No | 53% | 1.88 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Corinthians or draw) | 77% | 1.30 |
| 12 (either side) | 73% | 1.37 | |
| X2 (draw or Botafogo) | 50% | 2.02 | |
| Handicap -1 | Corinthians win by 2+ | 24% | 4.14 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 24% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
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Corinthians and Botafogo recent form
Corinthians
1W 2D 3L
Botafogo
2W 1D 3L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Corinthians at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 6-4-7
- Win rate
- 35%
- Goals for / match
- 1.06
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 7 of 17
- They have won 9 of their 33 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They have kept 11 clean sheets in 33 matches.
- They have failed to score in 7 of 33 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- 42% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Botafogo away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 4-3-10
- Win rate
- 24%
- Goals for / match
- 1.12
- Goals against / match
- 1.82
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 17
- They have won 10 of their 33 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They average 1.6 goals per game at home against 1.1 on the road.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 33 matches.
- They have failed to score in 8 of 33 matches.
- 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Corinthians at home only, Botafogo away only.
Corinthians vs Botafogo head-to-head
Last 3 meetings: Corinthians 0 · draws 2 · Botafogo 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-17 | Botafogo | 3-1 | Corinthians | Brazil Serie A |
| 2025-11-30 | Corinthians | 2-2 | Botafogo | Brazil Serie A |
| 2025-07-26 | Botafogo | 1-1 | Corinthians | Brazil Serie A |
Other Matchday 35 fixtures
- Coritiba vs Santos — team news & stats 2026-11-18
- Remo vs Chapecoense-sc 2026-11-18
- Flamengo vs Atletico Paranaense — team news & stats 2026-11-18
- Cruzeiro vs Palmeiras 2026-11-18
- Gremio vs Bahia 2026-11-19
- Vasco DA Gama vs Internacional — team news & stats 2026-11-19
- Vitoria v RB Bragantino — match page 2026-11-19
- Sao Paulo v Fluminense — match page 2026-11-20
Before and after this match
- Corinthians, previous: Sao Paulo vs Corinthians prediction
- Botafogo, previous: Botafogo v Atletico-MG analysis