Vasco DA Gama vs Internacional preview
In the Brazil Serie A fixture between Vasco DA Gama and Internacional, the 1X2 probabilities show Vasco DA Gama at 55%, with a most likely scoreline of 1-0 (11%). The expected goals for Vasco DA Gama are 1.61, while Internacional sits at 0.97. This indicates a stronger attacking performance from Vasco DA Gama.
However, the match could deviate from these predictions. The Over 2.5 goals probability is at 48%, suggesting a close contest, and both teams to score stands at 51%. Recent form shows Vasco DA Gama with mixed results (W-W-L-L-W-L) and Internacional performing slightly better (W-L-W-L-D-W). The confidence grade is C, indicating some uncertainty in the expected outcomes.
Vasco DA Gama vs Internacional: model vs market
| Source | Vasco DA Gama | Draw | Internacional |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 51% | 27% | 22% |
| Market | 57% | 24% | 19% |
| Published | 55% | 25% | 19% |
| Edge | -1% | +1% | +1% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.61 vs 0.97.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.69, recorded — the top price across the 8 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -6.2% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Vasco DA Gama vs Internacional odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Vasco DA Gama, 25 snapshots since 2026-11-02.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Vasco DA Gama | 1.80 | 1.65 | -0.15 |
| Draw | 3.68 | 3.85 | +0.17 |
| Internacional | 4.20 | 5.05 | +0.85 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Vasco DA Gama and Internacional expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.59
- Attack rating (Vasco DA Gama / Internacional)
- 1.14 / 0.93
- Defence rating (Vasco DA Gama / Internacional)
- 0.99 / 0.92
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Vasco DA Gama vs Internacional score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Vasco DA Gama goals. Columns: Internacional goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Vasco DA Gama vs Internacional goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 51%
- No goals (0–0)
- 9%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Vasco DA Gama vs Internacional
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Vasco DA Gama | 55% | 1.80 |
| Draw | 25% | 3.98 | |
| Internacional | 19% | 5.16 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 48% | 2.09 |
| Under 2.5 | 52% | 1.92 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 51% | 1.96 |
| No | 49% | 2.04 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Vasco DA Gama or draw) | 81% | 1.24 |
| 12 (either side) | 75% | 1.34 | |
| X2 (draw or Internacional) | 45% | 2.25 | |
| Handicap -1 | Vasco DA Gama win by 2+ | 28% | 3.61 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Vasco DA Gama and Internacional recent form
Vasco DA Gama
3W 0D 3L
Internacional
3W 1D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Vasco DA Gama at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 8-3-6
- Win rate
- 47%
- Goals for / match
- 1.47
- Goals against / match
- 1.41
- Clean sheets
- 3 of 17
- They have won 11 of their 33 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 33 matches.
- They have failed to score in 10 of 33 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
Internacional away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-6-8
- Win rate
- 18%
- Goals for / match
- 0.94
- Goals against / match
- 1.47
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 17
- They have won 8 of their 33 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They have kept 7 clean sheets in 33 matches.
- They have failed to score in 10 of 33 matches.
- 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Vasco DA Gama at home only, Internacional away only.
Vasco DA Gama vs Internacional head-to-head
Last 3 meetings: Vasco DA Gama 1 · draws 1 · Internacional 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-16 | Internacional | 4-1 | Vasco DA Gama | Brazil Serie A |
| 2025-11-28 | Vasco DA Gama | 5-1 | Internacional | Brazil Serie A |
| 2025-07-27 | Internacional | 1-1 | Vasco DA Gama | Brazil Serie A |
Other Matchday 35 fixtures
- Coritiba vs Santos — team news & stats 2026-11-18
- Remo vs Chapecoense-sc 2026-11-18
- Flamengo vs Atletico Paranaense — team news & stats 2026-11-18
- Cruzeiro vs Palmeiras 2026-11-18
- Gremio vs Bahia 2026-11-19
- Corinthians v Botafogo — match page 2026-11-19
- Vitoria v RB Bragantino — match page 2026-11-19
- Sao Paulo v Fluminense — match page 2026-11-20
Before and after this match
- Vasco DA Gama, previous: Chapecoense-sc vs Vasco DA Gama: odds and pick
- Internacional, previous: Internacional – Coritiba, 2026-11-04