Updated

Brazil Serie A · Matchday 34

Internacional vs Coritiba

· Estádio Beira Rio, Porto Alegre· Referee F. Mendes

Alin prediction Internacional to win

Cblended with market odds

Predicted score 1 – 0

11% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
InternacionalDrawCoritiba
  • WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.77 vs 0.92.
  • RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Internacional is the favourite, not a value bet.
Best market odds
Internacional1.67 Draw4.20 Coritiba5.50

Price as of

Expected return at 1.67: -3.0% per unit staked

18+ · T&Cs apply · best price across 10 bookmakers, each at its own last update; the highlighted price is our pick.

Internacional vs Coritiba preview

In the upcoming match between Internacional and Coritiba, the 1X2 probabilities show Internacional at 58%, while Coritiba is at 18%. The most likely scoreline is 1-0, which has an 11% chance according to our model. Internacional's expected goals stand at 1.77, compared to Coritiba's 0.92, indicating a potential advantage for the home side.

However, the recent form could complicate things. Internacional has a mixed record with 2 wins in their last 6 matches, while Coritiba has struggled, winning only 1 of their last 6. Additionally, both teams to score is at 51%, suggesting that Coritiba could find the net despite their low expected goals. This match could be closer than the numbers suggest.

Internacional vs Coritiba: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceInternacionalDrawCoritiba
Model56%25%18%
Market59%24%18%
Published58%24%18%
Edge-1%0%0%
  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.77 vs 0.92.
  • Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.67, recorded — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -3.0% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).

Internacional vs Coritiba odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Internacional, 18 snapshots since 2026-10-26.

Opened 1.57Now 1.62 +0.05
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Internacional1.571.62+0.05
Draw4.104.03-0.07
Coritiba5.415.33-0.08

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Internacional and Coritiba expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.77Internacional
0.92Coritiba
Total expected goals
2.69
Attack rating (Internacional / Coritiba)
0.94 / 0.84
Defence rating (Internacional / Coritiba)
1.04 / 1.23

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Internacional vs Coritiba score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 7.9% 5.1% 2.9% 0.9% 0.2% 1 10.9% 12.1% 5.1% 1.6% 0.4% 2 10.6% 9.8% 4.5% 1.4% 0.4% 3 6.3% 5.8% 2.7% 0.8% 0.2% 4+ 4.2% 3.8% 1.8% 0.5% 0.2%

Rows: Internacional goals. Columns: Coritiba goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Internacional vs Coritiba goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 92%
Over 1.5 76%
Over 2.5 50%
Over 3.5 28%
Both teams to score
51%
No goals (0–0)
8%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Internacional vs Coritiba

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Internacional58%1.72
Draw24%4.16
Coritiba18%5.58
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.550%1.98
Under 2.550%2.02
Both teams to scoreYes51%1.96
No49%2.04
Double chance1X (Internacional or draw)82%1.22
12 (either side)76%1.32
X2 (draw or Coritiba)42%2.38
Handicap -1Internacional win by 2+33%3.06
Push (exactly one goal)24%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Compare the market for this pick

Where to bet on this match in Kenya

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Internacional and Coritiba recent form

Internacional 2W 1D 3L
Coritiba 1W 1D 4L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Internacional at home

Record (W-D-L)
5-5-6
Win rate
31%
Goals for / match
1.31
Goals against / match
1.06
Clean sheets
5 of 16
  • They have won 8 of their 33 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
  • They have kept 7 clean sheets in 33 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 10 of 33 matches.
  • 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Coritiba away

Record (W-D-L)
5-4-7
Win rate
31%
Goals for / match
1.12
Goals against / match
1.81
Clean sheets
4 of 16
  • They have won 11 of their 33 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
  • They have kept 7 clean sheets in 33 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 11 of 33 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
  • 34% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

League matches this season before kick-off: Internacional at home only, Coritiba away only.

Injuries & availability

Internacional absences

  • A. Sanabria calf injury
  • Alan Patrick inactive
  • Anthoni knee injury
  • Kayky ankle injury
  • S. Rochet lower back injury
  • Thiago Maia inactive

Coritiba absences

  • Lucas Ronier knee injury
  • Lucas Taverna inactive

Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider; confirmed line-ups appear about 40 minutes before kick-off.

Internacional vs Coritiba head-to-head

Last 10 meetings: Internacional 5 · draws 4 · Coritiba 1.

InternacionalDrawsCoritiba
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-05-09Coritiba2-2InternacionalBrazil Serie A
2023-10-29Internacional3-4CoritibaSerie A
2023-06-22Coritiba0-1InternacionalSerie A
2022-10-23Coritiba1-1InternacionalSerie A
2022-06-25Internacional3-0CoritibaSerie A
2020-11-08Internacional2-2CoritibaSerie A
2020-08-08Coritiba0-1InternacionalSerie A
2016-10-06Internacional1-0CoritibaSerie A
2016-06-24Coritiba1-1InternacionalSerie A
2015-09-12Coritiba0-1InternacionalSerie A

Other Matchday 34 fixtures

Before and after this match

Prediction snapshot Internacional to win Predicted score 1 – 0 C Bet on Internacional
Our pick: Internacional to win 18+ Bet Now