Updated

Brazil Serie A · Matchday 34

Atletico Paranaense vs Vasco DA Gama

· Arena da Baixada, Curitiba· Referee R. Abatti

Alin prediction Atletico Paranaense to win

Cblended with market odds

Predicted score 2 – 1

9% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
Atletico ParanaenseDrawVasco DA Gama
  • WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.77 vs 1.34.
  • RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Atletico Paranaense is the favourite, not a value bet.
Best market odds
Atletico Paranaense2.18 Draw3.74 Vasco DA Gama3.48

Price as of

Expected return at 2.18: -1.1% per unit staked

18+ · T&Cs apply · best price across 9 bookmakers, each at its own last update; the highlighted price is our pick.

Atletico Paranaense vs Vasco DA Gama preview

Atletico Paranaense faces Vasco DA Gama with a 45% chance of winning compared to 29% for Vasco DA Gama. The most likely scoreline is 2-1, which occurs with a 9% probability. Atletico Paranaense's expected goals are 1.65, while Vasco DA Gama's are 1.45.

Atletico Paranaense's recent form shows 2 wins and 3 draws, while Vasco DA Gama has 4 wins and 2 losses in their last 6 matches. Factors that could influence the outcome include the potential for both teams to score, which stands at 63%, and the likelihood of Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The confidence grade for this match is C, indicating some uncertainty in the predictions.

Atletico Paranaense vs Vasco DA Gama: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceAtletico ParanaenseDrawVasco DA Gama
Model47%25%28%
Market45%27%28%
Published45%26%28%
Edge0%0%0%
  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.77 vs 1.34.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.18, recorded — the top price across the 9 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -1.1% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).

Atletico Paranaense vs Vasco DA Gama odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Atletico Paranaense, 18 snapshots since 2026-10-26.

Opened 2.02Now 2.10 +0.08
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Atletico Paranaense2.022.10+0.08
Draw3.503.54+0.04
Vasco DA Gama3.323.32+0.00

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Atletico Paranaense and Vasco DA Gama expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.77Atletico Paranaense
1.34Vasco DA Gama
Total expected goals
3.11
Attack rating (Atletico Paranaense / Vasco DA Gama)
1.15 / 1.01
Defence rating (Atletico Paranaense / Vasco DA Gama)
1.25 / 1.01

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Atletico Paranaense vs Vasco DA Gama score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 5.5% 4.9% 4.0% 1.8% 0.8% 1 6.8% 11.6% 7.1% 3.2% 1.4% 2 7.0% 9.4% 6.3% 2.8% 1.3% 3 4.1% 5.5% 3.7% 1.7% 0.7% 4+ 2.7% 3.7% 2.5% 1.1% 0.5%

Rows: Atletico Paranaense goals. Columns: Vasco DA Gama goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Atletico Paranaense vs Vasco DA Gama goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 95%
Over 1.5 83%
Over 2.5 60%
Over 3.5 38%
Both teams to score
62%
No goals (0–0)
5%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Atletico Paranaense vs Vasco DA Gama

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Atletico Paranaense45%2.20
Draw26%3.80
Vasco DA Gama28%3.53
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.560%1.66
Under 2.540%2.51
Both teams to scoreYes62%1.60
No38%2.66
Double chance1X (Atletico Paranaense or draw)72%1.39
12 (either side)74%1.36
X2 (draw or Vasco DA Gama)55%1.83
Handicap -1Atletico Paranaense win by 2+26%3.85
Push (exactly one goal)21%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Compare the market for this pick

Where to bet on this match in Kenya

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Atletico Paranaense and Vasco DA Gama recent form

Atletico Paranaense 2W 2D 2L
Vasco DA Gama 2W 0D 4L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Atletico Paranaense at home

Record (W-D-L)
9-5-2
Win rate
56%
Goals for / match
1.69
Goals against / match
0.94
Clean sheets
5 of 16
  • They have won 15 of their 33 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
  • They have kept 8 clean sheets in 33 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 8 of 33 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
  • They have converted 5 of 6 penalties (83%).

Vasco DA Gama away

Record (W-D-L)
2-5-8
Win rate
13%
Goals for / match
1.00
Goals against / match
1.67
Clean sheets
1 of 15
  • They have won 10 of their 32 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
  • They have kept 4 clean sheets in 32 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 10 of 32 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
  • 30% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

League matches this season before kick-off: Atletico Paranaense at home only, Vasco DA Gama away only.

Injuries & availability

Atletico Paranaense absences

  • C. Teran inactive
  • Claudinho knee injury

Vasco DA Gama absences

  • A. Gomez injury
  • C. Cuesta hip injury
  • Cauan Barros leg injury
  • Mateus Carvalho knee injury

Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider; confirmed line-ups appear about 40 minutes before kick-off.

Atletico Paranaense vs Vasco DA Gama head-to-head

Last 10 meetings: Atletico Paranaense 4 · draws 2 · Vasco DA Gama 4.

Atletico ParanaenseDrawsVasco DA Gama
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-05-10Vasco DA Gama1-0Atletico ParanaenseBrazil Serie A
2024-09-12Atletico Paranaense2-1Vasco DA GamaCopa Do Brasil
2024-08-29Vasco DA Gama2-1Atletico ParanaenseCopa Do Brasil
2024-08-27Vasco DA Gama2-1Atletico ParanaenseSerie A
2024-05-05Atletico Paranaense1-0Vasco DA GamaSerie A
2023-11-25Atletico Paranaense0-0Vasco DA GamaSerie A
2023-07-23Vasco DA Gama0-2Atletico ParanaenseSerie A
2020-12-27Atletico Paranaense3-0Vasco DA GamaSerie A
2020-09-06Vasco DA Gama1-0Atletico ParanaenseSerie A
2019-09-22Vasco DA Gama1-1Atletico ParanaenseSerie A

Other Matchday 34 fixtures

Before and after this match

Prediction snapshot Atletico Paranaense to win Predicted score 2 – 1 C Bet on Atletico Paranaense
Our pick: Atletico Paranaense to win 18+ Bet Now