Botafogo vs Atletico-MG preview
In the fixture between Botafogo and Atletico-MG, the 1X2 probabilities show Botafogo at 41%, Atletico-MG at 32%, and a draw at 27%. The most likely scoreline is 1-0, with an 8% chance. The expected goals indicate Botafogo at 1.13 and Atletico-MG at 1.42, suggesting a competitive match.
Both teams to score stands at 53%, while Over 2.5 goals is at 47%. Botafogo's recent form shows L-L-W-D-L-L, while Atletico-MG has a stronger L-L-L-W-W-W record. The confidence grade is C, indicating some uncertainty in the outcome. Factors like a sudden change in team form or key player performances could affect the expected results.
Botafogo vs Atletico-MG: model vs market
| Source | Botafogo | Draw | Atletico-MG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 33% | 30% | 37% |
| Market | 49% | 25% | 26% |
| Published | 45% | 26% | 29% |
| Edge | -4% | +1% | +3% |
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.00, recorded — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -10.4% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Botafogo vs Atletico-MG odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Botafogo, 18 snapshots since 2026-10-26.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Botafogo | 2.20 | 1.93 | -0.27 |
| Draw | 3.60 | 3.70 | +0.10 |
| Atletico-MG | 3.00 | 3.60 | +0.60 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Botafogo and Atletico-MG expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.46
- Attack rating (Botafogo / Atletico-MG)
- 0.74 / 0.96
- Defence rating (Botafogo / Atletico-MG)
- 1.25 / 1.05
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Botafogo vs Atletico-MG score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Botafogo goals. Columns: Atletico-MG goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Botafogo vs Atletico-MG goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 51%
- No goals (0–0)
- 10%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Botafogo vs Atletico-MG
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Botafogo | 45% | 2.23 |
| Draw | 26% | 3.78 | |
| Atletico-MG | 29% | 3.48 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 45% | 2.24 |
| Under 2.5 | 55% | 1.81 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 51% | 1.95 |
| No | 49% | 2.06 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Botafogo or draw) | 71% | 1.40 |
| 12 (either side) | 74% | 1.36 | |
| X2 (draw or Atletico-MG) | 55% | 1.81 | |
| Handicap -1 | Botafogo win by 2+ | 15% | 6.86 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 19% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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| 2 |  |
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| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Botafogo and Atletico-MG recent form
Botafogo
1W 1D 4L
Atletico-MG
2W 0D 4L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Botafogo at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 6-6-4
- Win rate
- 38%
- Goals for / match
- 1.62
- Goals against / match
- 1.38
- Clean sheets
- 4 of 16
- They have won 10 of their 33 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They average 1.6 goals per game at home against 1.1 on the road.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 33 matches.
- They have failed to score in 8 of 33 matches.
- 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Atletico-MG away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 4-3-9
- Win rate
- 25%
- Goals for / match
- 1.06
- Goals against / match
- 1.31
- Clean sheets
- 3 of 16
- They have won 14 of their 33 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They average 1.6 goals per game at home against 1.1 on the road.
- They have kept 8 clean sheets in 33 matches.
- They have failed to score in 10 of 33 matches.
- 38% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Botafogo at home only, Atletico-MG away only.
Injuries & availability
Botafogo absences
- Arthur Chaves inactive
- Danilo Santos injury
-
J. Barrera
ankle injury
-
Kaio Pantaleao
knee injury
Atletico-MG absences
- Fred muscle injury
-
M. Cassierra
muscle injury
-
Reinier
injury
-
Ruan Tressoldi
muscle injury
-
T. Borbas
muscle injury
Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider; confirmed line-ups appear about 40 minutes before kick-off.
Botafogo vs Atletico-MG head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: Botafogo 5 · draws 2 · Atletico-MG 3.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-10 | Atletico-MG | 1-1 | Botafogo | Brazil Serie A |
| 2025-09-20 | Botafogo | 1-0 | Atletico-MG | Brazil Serie A |
| 2025-04-20 | Atletico-MG | 1-0 | Botafogo | Brazil Serie A |
| 2024-11-30 | Atletico-MG | 1-3 | Botafogo | CONMEBOL Libertadores |
| 2024-11-21 | Atletico-MG | 0-0 | Botafogo | Serie A |
| 2024-07-07 | Botafogo | 3-0 | Atletico-MG | Serie A |
| 2023-09-17 | Atletico-MG | 1-0 | Botafogo | Serie A |
| 2023-05-07 | Botafogo | 2-0 | Atletico-MG | Serie A |
| 2022-11-07 | Atletico-MG | 0-2 | Botafogo | Serie A |
| 2022-07-17 | Botafogo | 0-1 | Atletico-MG | Serie A |
Other Matchday 34 fixtures
- Chapecoense-sc vs Mirassol — team news & stats 2026-11-03
- Internacional vs Coritiba 2026-11-04
- Flamengo v Gremio — match page 2026-11-04
- Atletico Paranaense vs Vasco DA Gama 2026-11-04
- Sao Paulo vs Corinthians 2026-11-05
- Palmeiras vs Remo — team news & stats 2026-11-05
- Cruzeiro v Bahia — match page 2026-11-06
- Vitoria vs Fluminense — team news & stats 2026-11-06
Before and after this match
- Botafogo, previous: Remo vs Botafogo prediction
- Atletico-MG, previous: Gremio – Atletico-MG, 2026-11-01
- Atletico-MG, next: Atletico-MG v Gremio analysis