Updated

Copa Do Brasil · Semi-finals

Atletico-MG vs Gremio

· Arena MRV, Bello Harisanta· Referee Ramon Abatti

Full time1 – 1

Alin prediction was Atletico-MG to win

Cblended with market oddsMissed

Predicted score 1 – 0

8% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
Atletico-MGDrawGremio

Atletico-MG vs Gremio: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceAtletico-MGDrawGremio
Model34%29%37%
Market59%23%17%
Published53%25%22%
Edge-6%+1%+5%

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Atletico-MG vs Gremio odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Atletico-MG, 12 snapshots since 2026-11-02.

Opened 1.76Now 1.58 -0.18
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Atletico-MG1.761.58-0.18
Draw3.644.03+0.39
Gremio4.325.40+1.08

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Atletico-MG and Gremio expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.28Atletico-MG
1.33Gremio
Total expected goals
2.61
Attack rating (Atletico-MG / Gremio)
0.95 / 1.15
Defence rating (Atletico-MG / Gremio)
1.15 / 1.09

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Atletico-MG vs Gremio score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 8.6% 8.5% 6.5% 2.9% 1.3% 1 8.2% 13.8% 8.3% 3.7% 1.6% 2 6.0% 8.0% 5.3% 2.4% 1.0% 3 2.6% 3.4% 2.3% 1.0% 0.4% 4+ 1.1% 1.5% 1.0% 0.4% 0.2%

Rows: Atletico-MG goals. Columns: Gremio goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Atletico-MG vs Gremio goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 91%
Over 1.5 75%
Over 2.5 48%
Over 3.5 27%
Both teams to score
54%
No goals (0–0)
9%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Atletico-MG vs Gremio

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Atletico-MG53%1.88
Draw25%4.06
Gremio22%4.51
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.548%2.07
Under 2.552%1.94
Both teams to scoreYes54%1.84
No46%2.19
Double chance1X (Atletico-MG or draw)78%1.28
12 (either side)75%1.33
X2 (draw or Gremio)47%2.14
Handicap -1Atletico-MG win by 2+16%6.38
Push (exactly one goal)19%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Atletico-MG and Gremio recent form

Atletico-MG 1W 0D 5L
Gremio 3W 1D 2L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Atletico-MG at home

Record (W-D-L)
2-1-0
Win rate
67%
Goals for / match
1.33
Goals against / match
0.67
Clean sheets
1 of 3
  • They have won 3 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.

Gremio away

Record (W-D-L)
1-2-0
Win rate
33%
Goals for / match
1.33
Goals against / match
0.33
Clean sheets
2 of 3
  • They have won 5 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.7 goals per match.
  • They average 2.0 goals per game at home against 1.3 on the road.
  • They have kept 5 clean sheets in 7 matches.
  • 53% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

League matches this season before kick-off: Atletico-MG at home only, Gremio away only.

Expected lineups

Atletico-MG lineup · 4-2-3-1

  1. 22 Everson
  2. 16 Renan Lodi
  3. 14 Vitor Hugo
  4. 40 Vitão
  5. 2 Natanael
  6. 21 A. Franco
  7. 15 K. Castaño
  8. 11 Bernard
  9. 17 Igor Gomes
  10. 28 T. Cuello
  11. 27 A. Minda

Bench: Gabriel Delfim, Léo Duarte, Ruan Tressoldi, Fred, Maycon, M. Cassierra, Gustavo Scarpa, A. Preciado, T. Pérez, K. Pascini, Mamady Cisse, Dudu

Gremio lineup · 5-4-1

  1. 1 Weverton
  2. 23 Marlon
  3. 4 W. Kannemann
  4. 2 F. Balbuena
  5. 82 Wallace
  6. 18 João Pedro
  7. 9 F. Amuzu
  8. 20 M. Villasanti
  9. 8 E. Noriega
  10. 99 J. Enamorado
  11. 95 Carlos Vinícius

Bench: Wagner Leonardo, F. Krovinović, Tetê, Gabriel Grando, Marcos Rocha, Dodi, M. Braithwaite, Matheus Nascimento, Caio Paulista, Bernardo Zortea, Pedro Gabriel, Jovane Cabral

Atletico-MG vs Gremio head-to-head

Last 10 meetings: Atletico-MG 4 · draws 0 · Gremio 6.

Atletico-MGDrawsGremio
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-11-01Gremio2-0Atletico-MGCopa Do Brasil
2026-08-16Atletico-MG3-0GremioBrazil Serie A
2026-02-26Gremio2-1Atletico-MGBrazil Serie A
2025-08-17Atletico-MG1-3GremioBrazil Serie A
2025-03-29Gremio2-1Atletico-MGBrazil Serie A
2024-10-09Atletico-MG2-1GremioSerie A
2024-09-01Gremio2-3Atletico-MGSerie A
2023-11-26Atletico-MG3-0GremioSerie A
2023-07-23Gremio1-0Atletico-MGSerie A
2021-12-10Gremio4-3Atletico-MGSerie A

Other Semi-finals fixtures

Before and after this match