Gremio vs Atletico-MG preview
In the Copa Do Brasil match between Gremio and Atletico-MG, the 1X2 probabilities show Atletico-MG at 52% and Gremio at 23%. The most likely scoreline is 1-2, with Atletico-MG expected to score 1.80 goals compared to Gremio's 1.12.
Both teams have different recent forms, with Gremio recording L-D-D-D-L-L and Atletico-MG on a stronger run of W-W-W-D-W-D. The model indicates a 56% chance for Over 2.5 goals and a 57% probability for both teams to score. Gremio has won 3 of the last 4 head-to-head matches, which could influence the outcome despite the current form.
Gremio vs Atletico-MG: model vs market
| Source | Gremio | Draw | Atletico-MG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 28% | 27% | 45% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 28% | 27% | 45% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.61 vs 1.21.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
Gremio and Atletico-MG expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.82
- Attack rating (Gremio / Atletico-MG)
- 1.04 / 1.25
- Defence rating (Gremio / Atletico-MG)
- 1.27 / 0.95
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Gremio vs Atletico-MG score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Gremio goals. Columns: Atletico-MG goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Gremio vs Atletico-MG goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 57%
- No goals (0–0)
- 7%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Gremio vs Atletico-MG
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Gremio | 28% | 3.61 |
| Draw | 27% | 3.71 | |
| Atletico-MG | 45% | 2.20 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 54% | 1.87 |
| Under 2.5 | 46% | 2.15 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 57% | 1.74 |
| No | 43% | 2.35 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Gremio or draw) | 55% | 1.83 |
| 12 (either side) | 73% | 1.37 | |
| X2 (draw or Atletico-MG) | 72% | 1.38 | |
| Handicap -1 | Atletico-MG win by 2+ | 24% | 4.16 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Gremio and Atletico-MG recent form
Gremio
0W 3D 3L
Atletico-MG
4W 1D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Gremio at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-0-0
- Win rate
- 100%
- Goals for / match
- 2.00
- Goals against / match
- 0.33
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 3
- They have won 3 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 5 matches.
- 60% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Atletico-MG away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-1-1
- Win rate
- 33%
- Goals for / match
- 1.00
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 3
- They have won 2 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
League matches this season before kick-off: Gremio at home only, Atletico-MG away only.
Gremio vs Atletico-MG head-to-head
Last 4 meetings: Gremio 3 · draws 0 · Atletico-MG 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-16 | Atletico-MG | 3-0 | Gremio | Brazil Serie A |
| 2026-02-26 | Gremio | 2-1 | Atletico-MG | Brazil Serie A |
| 2025-08-17 | Atletico-MG | 1-3 | Gremio | Brazil Serie A |
| 2025-03-29 | Gremio | 2-1 | Atletico-MG | Brazil Serie A |
Other Semi-finals fixtures
- Palmeiras vs Vasco DA Gama — team news & stats 2026-11-01
- Atletico-MG vs Gremio 2026-11-07
- Vasco DA Gama vs Palmeiras 2026-11-08
Before and after this match
- Gremio, previous: Gremio v Atletico Paranaense analysis
- Gremio, next: Atletico-MG v Gremio analysis
- Atletico-MG, previous: Atletico-MG vs Cruzeiro: odds and pick
- Atletico-MG, next: Atletico-MG v Gremio analysis