Updated

Copa Do Brasil · Semi-finals

Gremio vs Atletico-MG

· Arena do Grêmio, Porto Alegre· Referee Davi de Oliveira Lacerda

Full time2 – 0

Alin prediction was Gremio to win

Cblended with market oddsCorrect

Predicted score 2 – 1

9% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
GremioDrawAtletico-MG

Gremio vs Atletico-MG: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceGremioDrawAtletico-MG
Model41%28%31%
Market36%31%33%
Published37%30%33%
Edge+1%-1%0%

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Gremio vs Atletico-MG odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Gremio, 16 snapshots since 2026-10-25.

Opened 2.59Now 2.58 -0.01
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Gremio2.592.58-0.01
Draw3.053.00-0.05
Atletico-MG2.832.83-0.00

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Gremio and Atletico-MG expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.51Gremio
1.28Atletico-MG
Total expected goals
2.79
Attack rating (Gremio / Atletico-MG)
1.10 / 1.20
Defence rating (Gremio / Atletico-MG)
1.06 / 1.11

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Gremio vs Atletico-MG score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 7.3% 6.7% 5.0% 2.2% 0.9% 1 8.1% 13.1% 7.6% 3.3% 1.4% 2 7.0% 9.0% 5.7% 2.5% 1.0% 3 3.5% 4.5% 2.9% 1.2% 0.5% 4+ 1.8% 2.4% 1.5% 0.7% 0.3%

Rows: Gremio goals. Columns: Atletico-MG goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Gremio vs Atletico-MG goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 93%
Over 1.5 78%
Over 2.5 53%
Over 3.5 31%
Both teams to score
57%
No goals (0–0)
7%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Gremio vs Atletico-MG

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Gremio37%2.68
Draw30%3.32
Atletico-MG33%3.07
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.553%1.90
Under 2.547%2.12
Both teams to scoreYes57%1.74
No43%2.35
Double chance1X (Gremio or draw)67%1.48
12 (either side)70%1.43
X2 (draw or Atletico-MG)63%1.60
Handicap -1Gremio win by 2+21%4.78
Push (exactly one goal)20%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Gremio and Atletico-MG recent form

Gremio 2W 3D 1L
Atletico-MG 3W 0D 3L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Gremio at home

Record (W-D-L)
3-0-0
Win rate
100%
Goals for / match
2.00
Goals against / match
0.33
Clean sheets
2 of 3
  • They have won 4 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 1.7 goals per match.
  • They average 2.0 goals per game at home against 1.3 on the road.
  • They have kept 4 clean sheets in 6 matches.
  • 50% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Atletico-MG away

Record (W-D-L)
1-1-1
Win rate
33%
Goals for / match
1.00
Goals against / match
1.00
Clean sheets
1 of 3
  • They have won 3 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.

League matches this season before kick-off: Gremio at home only, Atletico-MG away only.

Expected lineups

Gremio lineup · 4-1-4-1

  1. 1 Weverton
  2. 23 Marlon
  3. 2 F. Balbuena
  4. 6 Gustavo Martins
  5. 18 João Pedro
  6. 8 E. Noriega
  7. 9 F. Amuzu
  8. 82 Wallace
  9. 20 M. Villasanti
  10. 99 J. Enamorado
  11. 95 Carlos Vinícius

Bench: Wagner Leonardo, W. Kannemann, F. Krovinović, Tetê, Gabriel Grando, Marcos Rocha, Dodi, M. Braithwaite, Matheus Nascimento, Caio Paulista, Bernardo Zortea, Pedro Gabriel

Atletico-MG lineup · 4-2-3-1

  1. 1 Gabriel Delfim
  2. 6 Renan Lodi
  3. 14 Vitor Hugo
  4. 3 Léo Duarte
  5. 21 A. Franco
  6. 15 K. Castaño
  7. 8 Maycon
  8. 11 Bernard
  9. 30 Victor Hugo
  10. 28 T. Cuello
  11. 13 Lyanco

Bench: Natanael, Gustavo Scarpa, Igor Gomes, Everson, A. Preciado, T. Pérez, A. Minda, Caua, K. Pascini, Mamady Cisse, Vitão, Dudu

Gremio vs Atletico-MG head-to-head

Last 10 meetings: Gremio 5 · draws 0 · Atletico-MG 5.

GremioDrawsAtletico-MG
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-08-16Atletico-MG3-0GremioBrazil Serie A
2026-02-26Gremio2-1Atletico-MGBrazil Serie A
2025-08-17Atletico-MG1-3GremioBrazil Serie A
2025-03-29Gremio2-1Atletico-MGBrazil Serie A
2024-10-09Atletico-MG2-1GremioSerie A
2024-09-01Gremio2-3Atletico-MGSerie A
2023-11-26Atletico-MG3-0GremioSerie A
2023-07-23Gremio1-0Atletico-MGSerie A
2021-12-10Gremio4-3Atletico-MGSerie A
2021-11-04Atletico-MG2-1GremioSerie A

Other Semi-finals fixtures

Before and after this match