Palmeiras vs Vasco DA Gama Prediction & Betting Tips 01/11/2026

Palmeiras vs Vasco DA Gama preview

In the Copa Do Brasil, Palmeiras faces Vasco DA Gama with a 43% chance of winning compared to Vasco's 24%. The most likely scoreline is 1-0, which has a 15% probability. Palmeiras has a slight edge in expected goals at 1.17, while Vasco is at 0.80.

However, both teams to score stands at 39%, indicating that while Palmeiras is favored, Vasco could find the net. Recent form shows Palmeiras with 3 wins and 1 draw in their last 5 matches, while Vasco has 4 wins in the same period. This could make the outcome less predictable than the numbers suggest.

Palmeiras vs Vasco DA Gama: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
Source	Palmeiras	Draw	Vasco DA Gama
Model	47%	31%	21%
Market	—	—	—
Published	47%	31%	21%
Edge	—	—	—

Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.29 vs 0.78.
Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 3 for the opposition.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).

Palmeiras and Vasco DA Gama expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.29Palmeiras

0.78Vasco DA Gama

Total expected goals: 2.07
Attack rating (Palmeiras / Vasco DA Gama): 1.25 / 1.19
Defence rating (Palmeiras / Vasco DA Gama): 0.65 / 0.84

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Palmeiras vs Vasco DA Gama score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 13.9% 8.6% 3.9% 1.0% 0.2% 1 15.0% 14.0% 5.0% 1.3% 0.3% 2 10.5% 8.2% 3.2% 0.8% 0.2% 3 4.5% 3.5% 1.4% 0.4% 0.1% 4+ 1.9% 1.5% 0.6% 0.2% 0.0%

Rows: Palmeiras goals. Columns: Vasco DA Gama goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Palmeiras vs Vasco DA Gama goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 86%

Over 1.5 62%

Over 2.5 34%

Over 3.5 16%

Both teams to score: 40%
No goals (0–0): 14%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Palmeiras vs Vasco DA Gama

Published probability and fair odds per market
Market	Selection	Probability	Fair odds
1X2	Palmeiras	47%	2.12
	Draw	31%	3.18
	Vasco DA Gama	21%	4.69
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	34%	2.93
	Under 2.5	66%	1.52
Both teams to score	Yes	40%	2.47
	No	60%	1.68
Double chance	1X (Palmeiras or draw)	79%	1.27
	12 (either side)	69%	1.46
	X2 (draw or Vasco DA Gama)	53%	1.89
Handicap -1	Palmeiras win by 2+	23%	4.44
	Push (exactly one goal)	25%	—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Compare the market for this pick

Where to bet on this match in Kenya

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Palmeiras and Vasco DA Gama recent form

Palmeiras 4W 1D 1L

Vasco DA Gama 3W 1D 2L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Palmeiras at home

Record (W-D-L): 3-0-0
Win rate: 100%
Goals for / match: 3.00
Goals against / match: 0.00
Clean sheets: 3 of 3

They have won 4 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 3.0 goals per match.
They have kept 3 clean sheets in 5 matches.
Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).

Vasco DA Gama away

Record (W-D-L): 3-0-0
Win rate: 100%
Goals for / match: 2.33
Goals against / match: 0.33
Clean sheets: 2 of 3

They have won 3 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
They have kept 3 clean sheets in 5 matches.

League matches this season before kick-off: Palmeiras at home only, Vasco DA Gama away only.

Palmeiras vs Vasco DA Gama head-to-head

Last 4 meetings: Palmeiras 3 · draws 0 · Vasco DA Gama 1.

75% 0% 25%

PalmeirasDrawsVasco DA Gama

Previous meetings
Date	Home	Score	Away	Competition
2026-08-23	Palmeiras	4-1	Vasco DA Gama	Brazil Serie A
2026-03-12	Vasco DA Gama	2-1	Palmeiras	Brazil Serie A
2025-10-01	Palmeiras	3-0	Vasco DA Gama	Brazil Serie A
2025-05-04	Vasco DA Gama	0-1	Palmeiras	Brazil Serie A

Other Semi-finals fixtures

Gremio vs Atletico-MG — team news & stats 2026-11-01
Atletico-MG vs Gremio 2026-11-07
Vasco DA Gama vs Palmeiras 2026-11-08

Before and after this match

Palmeiras, previous: Santos – Palmeiras, 2026-10-28
Palmeiras, next: Vasco DA Gama v Palmeiras analysis
Vasco DA Gama, previous: Vasco DA Gama vs Flamengo prediction
Vasco DA Gama, next: Vasco DA Gama v Palmeiras analysis

Prediction snapshot Palmeiras to win Predicted score 1 – 0 C Bet on Palmeiras