Updated

Copa Do Brasil · Semi-finals

Palmeiras vs Vasco DA Gama

· Nubank Parque, Sao Paulo· Referee Anderson Daronco

Full time1 – 0

Alin prediction was Palmeiras to win

Cblended with market oddsCorrect

Predicted score 1 – 0

15% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
PalmeirasDrawVasco DA Gama

Palmeiras vs Vasco DA Gama: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourcePalmeirasDrawVasco DA Gama
Model57%28%15%
Market55%28%18%
Published55%28%17%
Edge+1%0%-1%
  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.56 vs 0.70.
  • Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Palmeiras vs Vasco DA Gama odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Palmeiras, 4 snapshots since 2026-10-31.

Opened 1.73Now 1.71 -0.02
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Palmeiras1.731.71-0.02
Draw3.333.40+0.07
Vasco DA Gama5.105.35+0.25

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Palmeiras and Vasco DA Gama expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.56Palmeiras
0.70Vasco DA Gama
Total expected goals
2.26
Attack rating (Palmeiras / Vasco DA Gama)
1.13 / 1.25
Defence rating (Palmeiras / Vasco DA Gama)
0.55 / 1.13

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Palmeiras vs Vasco DA Gama score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 11.5% 6.1% 2.5% 0.6% 0.1% 1 15.1% 12.5% 4.0% 0.9% 0.2% 2 12.7% 8.9% 3.1% 0.7% 0.1% 3 6.6% 4.6% 1.6% 0.4% 0.1% 4+ 3.7% 2.6% 0.9% 0.2% 0.0%

Rows: Palmeiras goals. Columns: Vasco DA Gama goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Palmeiras vs Vasco DA Gama goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 88%
Over 1.5 67%
Over 2.5 39%
Over 3.5 19%
Both teams to score
41%
No goals (0–0)
12%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Palmeiras vs Vasco DA Gama

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Palmeiras55%1.80
Draw28%3.63
Vasco DA Gama17%5.89
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.539%2.54
Under 2.561%1.65
Both teams to scoreYes41%2.45
No59%1.69
Double chance1X (Palmeiras or draw)83%1.20
12 (either side)72%1.38
X2 (draw or Vasco DA Gama)45%2.25
Handicap -1Palmeiras win by 2+31%3.20
Push (exactly one goal)26%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Palmeiras and Vasco DA Gama recent form

Palmeiras 4W 1D 1L
Vasco DA Gama 2W 1D 3L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Palmeiras at home

Record (W-D-L)
3-0-0
Win rate
100%
Goals for / match
3.00
Goals against / match
0.00
Clean sheets
3 of 3
  • They have won 4 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 2.5 goals per match.
  • They average 3.0 goals per game at home against 2.0 on the road.
  • They have kept 4 clean sheets in 6 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
  • They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).

Vasco DA Gama away

Record (W-D-L)
3-0-0
Win rate
100%
Goals for / match
2.33
Goals against / match
0.33
Clean sheets
2 of 3
  • They have won 4 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 1.7 goals per match.
  • They average 2.3 goals per game on the road against 1.0 at home.
  • They have kept 4 clean sheets in 6 matches.

League matches this season before kick-off: Palmeiras at home only, Vasco DA Gama away only.

Expected lineups

Palmeiras lineup · 3-4-2-1

  1. 1 Carlos Miguel
  2. 2 A. Barboza
  3. 15 G. Gómez
  4. 26 Murilo
  5. 22 J. Piquerez
  6. 30 Lucas Evangelista
  7. 17 Marlon Freitas
  8. 4 A. Giay
  9. 11 J. Arias
  10. 18 Maurício
  11. 42 J. López

Bench: Bruno Fuchs, Felipe Anderson, Andreas Pereira, Vitor Roque, Khellven, Marcelo Lomba, E. Martínez, Benedetti, Erick Machado, Larson, Luis Felipe, Arthur

Vasco DA Gama lineup · 4-1-4-1

  1. 1 Léo Jardim
  2. 6 Lucas Piton
  3. 30 Robert Renan
  4. 4 A. Saldivia
  5. 96 Paulo Henrique
  6. 5 S. Sosa
  7. 9 F. Colidio
  8. 23 Thiago Mendes
  9. 22 A. Lescano
  10. 28 Adson
  11. 19 Bruno Duarte

Bench: J. Rodríguez, Tchê Tchê, David, Jair, Daniel Fuzato, Nuno Moreira, M. Hinestroza, Brenner, Lucas Freitas, Gabriel Pereira, Cuiabano, Ramon Rique

Palmeiras vs Vasco DA Gama head-to-head

Last 10 meetings: Palmeiras 7 · draws 2 · Vasco DA Gama 1.

PalmeirasDrawsVasco DA Gama
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-08-23Palmeiras4-1Vasco DA GamaBrazil Serie A
2026-03-12Vasco DA Gama2-1PalmeirasBrazil Serie A
2025-10-01Palmeiras3-0Vasco DA GamaBrazil Serie A
2025-05-04Vasco DA Gama0-1PalmeirasBrazil Serie A
2024-09-22Vasco DA Gama0-1PalmeirasSerie A
2024-06-14Palmeiras2-0Vasco DA GamaSerie A
2023-08-27Palmeiras1-0Vasco DA GamaSerie A
2023-04-23Vasco DA Gama2-2PalmeirasSerie A
2021-01-26Palmeiras1-1Vasco DA GamaSerie A
2020-11-08Vasco DA Gama0-1PalmeirasSerie A

Other Semi-finals fixtures

Before and after this match