Updated

Copa Do Brasil · Semi-finals

Vasco DA Gama vs Palmeiras

· São Januário, Rio de Janeiro· Referee B. Machado

Full time2 – 1

Alin prediction was Palmeiras to win

Cblended with market oddsMissed

Predicted score 0 – 1

12% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
Vasco DA GamaDrawPalmeiras

Vasco DA Gama vs Palmeiras: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceVasco DA GamaDrawPalmeiras
Model18%27%55%
Market36%29%35%
Published32%29%40%
Edge-4%-1%+5%
  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.65 vs 0.86.
  • Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
  • The market prices Palmeiras below our published probability: +5.0 percentage points of edge.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Vasco DA Gama vs Palmeiras odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Palmeiras, 14 snapshots since 2026-11-02.

Opened 2.36Now 2.70 +0.34
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Vasco DA Gama2.892.62-0.27
Draw3.383.21-0.17
Palmeiras2.362.70+0.34

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Vasco DA Gama and Palmeiras expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

0.86Vasco DA Gama
1.65Palmeiras
Total expected goals
2.51
Attack rating (Vasco DA Gama / Palmeiras)
1.25 / 1.48
Defence rating (Vasco DA Gama / Palmeiras)
1.11 / 0.56

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Vasco DA Gama vs Palmeiras score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 9.3% 12.2% 11.0% 6.1% 3.6% 1 5.8% 12.7% 9.5% 5.2% 3.1% 2 3.0% 5.0% 4.1% 2.3% 1.3% 3 0.9% 1.4% 1.2% 0.6% 0.4% 4+ 0.2% 0.4% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1%

Rows: Vasco DA Gama goals. Columns: Palmeiras goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Vasco DA Gama vs Palmeiras goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 91%
Over 1.5 73%
Over 2.5 46%
Over 3.5 25%
Both teams to score
48%
No goals (0–0)
9%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Vasco DA Gama vs Palmeiras

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Vasco DA Gama32%3.17
Draw29%3.49
Palmeiras40%2.51
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.546%2.18
Under 2.554%1.85
Both teams to scoreYes48%2.09
No52%1.92
Double chance1X (Vasco DA Gama or draw)60%1.66
12 (either side)71%1.40
X2 (draw or Palmeiras)68%1.46
Handicap -1Palmeiras win by 2+31%3.28
Push (exactly one goal)24%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Vasco DA Gama and Palmeiras recent form

Vasco DA Gama 2W 0D 4L
Palmeiras 4W 1D 1L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Vasco DA Gama at home

Record (W-D-L)
1-2-0
Win rate
33%
Goals for / match
1.00
Goals against / match
0.67
Clean sheets
2 of 3
  • They have won 4 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
  • They average 1.8 goals per game on the road against 1.0 at home.
  • They have kept 4 clean sheets in 7 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.

Palmeiras away

Record (W-D-L)
1-1-1
Win rate
33%
Goals for / match
2.00
Goals against / match
1.33
Clean sheets
1 of 3
  • They have won 5 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 2.3 goals per match.
  • They average 2.5 goals per game at home against 2.0 on the road.
  • They have kept 5 clean sheets in 7 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
  • They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).

League matches this season before kick-off: Vasco DA Gama at home only, Palmeiras away only.

Expected lineups

Vasco DA Gama lineup · 4-2-3-1

  1. 1 Léo Jardim
  2. 66 Cuiabano
  3. 30 Robert Renan
  4. 55 Gabriel Pereira
  5. 96 Paulo Henrique
  6. 23 Thiago Mendes
  7. 5 S. Sosa
  8. 9 F. Colidio
  9. 22 A. Lescano
  10. 11 A. Gómez
  11. 19 Bruno Duarte

Bench: J. Rodríguez, Tchê Tchê, Lucas Piton, David, Jair, Daniel Fuzato, Nuno Moreira, M. Hinestroza, Brenner, Adson, Lucas Freitas, Ramon Rique

Palmeiras lineup · 3-4-2-1

  1. 1 Carlos Miguel
  2. 2 A. Barboza
  3. 15 G. Gómez
  4. 26 Murilo
  5. 22 J. Piquerez
  6. 30 Lucas Evangelista
  7. 17 Marlon Freitas
  8. 4 A. Giay
  9. 18 Maurício
  10. 11 J. Arias
  11. 42 J. López

Bench: Felipe Anderson, Andreas Pereira, Vitor Roque, Khellven, Marcelo Lomba, E. Martínez, Benedetti, Luis Felipe, Arthur

Vasco DA Gama vs Palmeiras head-to-head

Last 10 meetings: Vasco DA Gama 1 · draws 2 · Palmeiras 7.

Vasco DA GamaDrawsPalmeiras
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-11-01Palmeiras1-0Vasco DA GamaCopa Do Brasil
2026-08-23Palmeiras4-1Vasco DA GamaBrazil Serie A
2026-03-12Vasco DA Gama2-1PalmeirasBrazil Serie A
2025-10-01Palmeiras3-0Vasco DA GamaBrazil Serie A
2025-05-04Vasco DA Gama0-1PalmeirasBrazil Serie A
2024-09-22Vasco DA Gama0-1PalmeirasSerie A
2024-06-14Palmeiras2-0Vasco DA GamaSerie A
2023-08-27Palmeiras1-0Vasco DA GamaSerie A
2023-04-23Vasco DA Gama2-2PalmeirasSerie A
2021-01-26Palmeiras1-1Vasco DA GamaSerie A

Other Semi-finals fixtures

Before and after this match