Palmeiras vs Remo Prediction & Betting Tips 05/11/2026

Palmeiras vs Remo preview

Palmeiras faces Remo with a strong 1X2 probability of 74% for a Palmeiras win, compared to just 8% for Remo. The most likely scoreline is 1-0, with a 21% chance according to our model. However, the confidence grade is C, indicating some uncertainty in the prediction.

Palmeiras has an expected goals figure of 1.49, while Remo is at 0.42, showing a significant difference in offensive output. The chances for Over 2.5 goals stand at 30%, and both teams to score is at 27%. If Remo improves their recent form, which includes only 1 win in their last 6 matches, they could challenge the expected outcome.

Palmeiras vs Remo: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
Source	Palmeiras	Draw	Remo
Model	62%	28%	9%
Market	77%	15%	8%
Published	74%	18%	8%
Edge	-4%	+3%	0%

Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.43 vs 0.39.
Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.25, recorded 2026-11-03 — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -8.1% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).

Palmeiras vs Remo odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Palmeiras, 16 snapshots since 2026-10-27.

Opened 1.18Now 1.22 +0.04

Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
Selection	First	Latest	Move
Palmeiras	1.18	1.22	+0.04
Draw	6.50	6.34	-0.16
Remo	14.50	12.00	-2.50

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Palmeiras and Remo expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.43Palmeiras

0.39Remo

Total expected goals: 1.82
Attack rating (Palmeiras / Remo): 0.96 / 0.76
Defence rating (Palmeiras / Remo): 0.49 / 0.97

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Palmeiras vs Remo score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 17.1% 5.5% 1.3% 0.2% 0.0% 1 22.2% 10.0% 1.8% 0.2% 0.0% 2 16.5% 6.5% 1.3% 0.2% 0.0% 3 7.8% 3.1% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 4+ 3.8% 1.5% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0%

Rows: Palmeiras goals. Columns: Remo goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Palmeiras vs Remo goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 83%

Over 1.5 55%

Over 2.5 27%

Over 3.5 11%

Both teams to score: 26%
No goals (0–0): 17%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Palmeiras vs Remo

Published probability and fair odds per market
Market	Selection	Probability	Fair odds
1X2	Palmeiras	74%	1.36
	Draw	18%	5.47
	Remo	8%	12.23
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	27%	3.64
	Under 2.5	73%	1.38
Both teams to score	Yes	26%	3.90
	No	74%	1.34
Double chance	1X (Palmeiras or draw)	92%	1.09
	12 (either side)	82%	1.22
	X2 (draw or Remo)	26%	3.78
Handicap -1	Palmeiras win by 2+	33%	3.03
	Push (exactly one goal)	29%	—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Compare the market for this pick

Where to bet on this match in Kenya

Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit

All betting sites

#	Welcome offer	Why it is here	Visit
1	50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply.	M-PESA Paybill 290059 Daily Jackpot Live betting	Get offer
2	First deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply.	1,000+ events every day Live betting around the clock 30+ markets on live events	Get offer
3	100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply.	M-Pesa and Airtel Money deposits Live in-play betting Android and iOS app	Get offer
4	200% first deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply.	1,000+ events every day 30+ markets on live events 24/7 customer support	Get offer

18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.

Palmeiras and Remo recent form

Palmeiras 4W 1D 1L

Remo 1W 3D 2L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Palmeiras at home

Record (W-D-L): 12-3-1
Win rate: 75%
Goals for / match: 1.88
Goals against / match: 0.62
Clean sheets: 7 of 16

They have won 20 of their 33 league games this season, scoring 1.7 goals per match.
They have kept 16 clean sheets in 33 matches.
They have failed to score in 5 of 33 matches.
Their longest winning run this season stretches to 5 matches.
They have converted 3 of 5 penalties (60%).
38% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Remo away

Record (W-D-L): 2-4-10
Win rate: 12%
Goals for / match: 0.88
Goals against / match: 1.81
Clean sheets: 2 of 16

They have won 6 of their 33 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
They have kept 4 clean sheets in 33 matches.
They have failed to score in 11 of 33 matches.
They have converted 1 of 3 penalties (33%).
37% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

League matches this season before kick-off: Palmeiras at home only, Remo away only.