Flamengo vs Gremio preview
Flamengo faces Gremio with a 76% chance of winning, while Gremio has only an 8% chance according to our model. The most likely scoreline is 1-0, with a 13% probability. Flamengo's expected goals stand at 1.81, significantly higher than Gremio's 0.72.
However, there are factors that could affect this outcome. Gremio's recent form includes 3 wins in their last 5 matches, which shows they can perform well. Additionally, the chances of Over 2.5 goals are at 46% and both teams to score is at 44%, indicating potential for a more open game than the predicted scoreline suggests.
Flamengo vs Gremio: model vs market
| Source | Flamengo | Draw | Gremio |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 62% | 24% | 13% |
| Market | 81% | 13% | 7% |
| Published | 76% | 16% | 8% |
| Edge | -5% | +3% | +2% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.81 vs 0.72.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 3 for the opposition.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.20, recorded — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -8.7% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Flamengo vs Gremio odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Flamengo, 18 snapshots since 2026-10-26.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Flamengo | 1.25 | 1.17 | -0.08 |
| Draw | 6.00 | 7.50 | +1.50 |
| Gremio | 10.90 | 14.00 | +3.10 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Flamengo and Gremio expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.53
- Attack rating (Flamengo / Gremio)
- 1.36 / 1.03
- Defence rating (Flamengo / Gremio)
- 0.66 / 0.87
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Flamengo vs Gremio score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Flamengo goals. Columns: Gremio goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Flamengo vs Gremio goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 44%
- No goals (0–0)
- 9%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Flamengo vs Gremio
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Flamengo | 76% | 1.31 |
| Draw | 16% | 6.44 | |
| Gremio | 8% | 11.94 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 46% | 2.16 |
| Under 2.5 | 54% | 1.86 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 44% | 2.28 |
| No | 56% | 1.78 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Flamengo or draw) | 92% | 1.09 |
| 12 (either side) | 84% | 1.18 | |
| X2 (draw or Gremio) | 24% | 4.18 | |
| Handicap -1 | Flamengo win by 2+ | 37% | 2.68 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 25% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Flamengo and Gremio recent form
Flamengo
4W 2D 0L
Gremio
3W 2D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Flamengo at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 12-3-1
- Win rate
- 75%
- Goals for / match
- 2.00
- Goals against / match
- 0.75
- Clean sheets
- 8 of 16
- They have won 22 of their 33 league games this season, scoring 2.1 goals per match.
- They have kept 14 clean sheets in 33 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 5 matches.
- They have converted 5 of 5 penalties (100%).
- 40% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Gremio away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-5-10
- Win rate
- 6%
- Goals for / match
- 0.62
- Goals against / match
- 1.44
- Clean sheets
- 3 of 16
- They have won 9 of their 33 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They average 1.6 goals per game at home against 0.6 on the road.
- They have kept 8 clean sheets in 33 matches.
- They have failed to score in 10 of 33 matches.
- 30% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Flamengo at home only, Gremio away only.
Injuries & availability
Flamengo absences
- A. Valencia eye injury
- Danilo jaw injury
-
G. Plata
yellow cards
-
Lucas Paqueta
injury
- S. Niguez muscle injury
Gremio absences
-
C. Pavon
muscle injury
- Carlos Vinicius yellow cards
- Danilo Barbosa injury
-
Diego Caito
muscle injury
-
J. Cabral
muscle injury
-
J. Nardoni
inactive
- Weverton yellow cards
Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider; confirmed line-ups appear about 40 minutes before kick-off.
Flamengo vs Gremio head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: Flamengo 6 · draws 2 · Gremio 2.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-10 | Gremio | 0-1 | Flamengo | Brazil Serie A |
| 2025-08-31 | Flamengo | 1-1 | Gremio | Brazil Serie A |
| 2025-04-13 | Gremio | 0-2 | Flamengo | Brazil Serie A |
| 2024-09-22 | Gremio | 3-2 | Flamengo | Serie A |
| 2024-06-13 | Flamengo | 2-1 | Gremio | Serie A |
| 2023-10-26 | Gremio | 3-2 | Flamengo | Serie A |
| 2023-08-17 | Flamengo | 1-0 | Gremio | Copa Do Brasil |
| 2023-07-27 | Gremio | 0-2 | Flamengo | Copa Do Brasil |
| 2023-06-11 | Flamengo | 3-0 | Gremio | Serie A |
| 2021-11-24 | Gremio | 2-2 | Flamengo | Serie A |
Other Matchday 34 fixtures
- RB Bragantino vs Santos 2026-11-02
- Chapecoense-sc vs Mirassol — team news & stats 2026-11-03
- Internacional vs Coritiba 2026-11-04
- Atletico Paranaense vs Vasco DA Gama 2026-11-04
- Botafogo v Atletico-MG — match page 2026-11-05
- Sao Paulo vs Corinthians 2026-11-05
- Palmeiras vs Remo — team news & stats 2026-11-05
- Cruzeiro v Bahia — match page 2026-11-06
Before and after this match
- Flamengo, previous: Vasco DA Gama vs Flamengo prediction
- Gremio, previous: Gremio – Atletico-MG, 2026-11-01
- Gremio, next: Atletico-MG v Gremio analysis