Flamengo vs Atletico Paranaense preview
Flamengo faces Atletico Paranaense with a strong 1X2 probability of 77% for Flamengo to win, compared to just 8% for Atletico Paranaense. The most likely scoreline is 3-0, which aligns with Flamengo's expected goals of 3.05, while Atletico Paranaense has an expected goals figure of only 0.79.
Flamengo's recent form shows 4 wins and 2 draws, while Atletico Paranaense has 1 win, 3 losses, and 2 draws in their last six matches. Although Flamengo is favored, the confidence grade is C, indicating some uncertainty. This could affect the outcome, as both teams to score stands at 53%, suggesting a possibility that Atletico Paranaense may find the net.
Flamengo vs Atletico Paranaense: model vs market
| Source | Flamengo | Draw | Atletico Paranaense |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 81% | 12% | 6% |
| Market | 76% | 15% | 8% |
| Published | 78% | 15% | 8% |
| Edge | +1% | -1% | -1% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 3.05 vs 0.79.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.25, recorded — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -3.1% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Flamengo vs Atletico Paranaense odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Flamengo, 26 snapshots since 2026-11-02.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Flamengo | 1.28 | 1.22 | -0.06 |
| Draw | 5.35 | 6.00 | +0.65 |
| Atletico Paranaense | 9.50 | 11.21 | +1.71 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Flamengo and Atletico Paranaense expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.84
- Attack rating (Flamengo / Atletico Paranaense)
- 1.45 / 1.13
- Defence rating (Flamengo / Atletico Paranaense)
- 0.66 / 1.37
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Flamengo vs Atletico Paranaense score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Flamengo goals. Columns: Atletico Paranaense goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Flamengo vs Atletico Paranaense goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 53%
- No goals (0–0)
- 3%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Flamengo vs Atletico Paranaense
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Flamengo | 78% | 1.29 |
| Draw | 15% | 6.78 | |
| Atletico Paranaense | 8% | 12.93 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 74% | 1.36 |
| Under 2.5 | 26% | 3.81 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 53% | 1.90 |
| No | 47% | 2.11 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Flamengo or draw) | 92% | 1.08 |
| 12 (either side) | 85% | 1.17 | |
| X2 (draw or Atletico Paranaense) | 22% | 4.45 | |
| Handicap -1 | Flamengo win by 2+ | 64% | 1.57 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 18% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 2 |  |
First deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 4 |  |
200% first deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Flamengo and Atletico Paranaense recent form
Flamengo
4W 2D 0L
Atletico Paranaense
1W 2D 3L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Flamengo at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 13-3-1
- Win rate
- 76%
- Goals for / match
- 2.06
- Goals against / match
- 0.76
- Clean sheets
- 8 of 17
- They have won 22 of their 33 league games this season, scoring 2.1 goals per match.
- They have kept 14 clean sheets in 33 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 5 matches.
- They have converted 5 of 5 penalties (100%).
- 40% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Atletico Paranaense away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 6-4-7
- Win rate
- 35%
- Goals for / match
- 1.35
- Goals against / match
- 1.47
- Clean sheets
- 3 of 17
- They have won 15 of their 33 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They have kept 8 clean sheets in 33 matches.
- They have failed to score in 8 of 33 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
- They have converted 5 of 6 penalties (83%).
League matches this season before kick-off: Flamengo at home only, Atletico Paranaense away only.
Flamengo vs Atletico Paranaense head-to-head
Last 1 meetings: Flamengo 0 · draws 1 · Atletico Paranaense 0.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-17 | Atletico Paranaense | 1-1 | Flamengo | Brazil Serie A |
Other Matchday 35 fixtures
- Coritiba vs Santos — team news & stats 2026-11-18
- Remo vs Chapecoense-sc 2026-11-18
- Cruzeiro vs Palmeiras 2026-11-18
- Gremio vs Bahia 2026-11-19
- Corinthians v Botafogo — match page 2026-11-19
- Vasco DA Gama vs Internacional — team news & stats 2026-11-19
- Vitoria v RB Bragantino — match page 2026-11-19
- Sao Paulo v Fluminense — match page 2026-11-20
Before and after this match
- Flamengo, previous: Flamengo – Gremio, 2026-11-04
- Atletico Paranaense, previous: Atletico Paranaense vs Vasco DA Gama: odds and pick