Gremio vs Bahia preview
In the match between Gremio and Bahia, the 1X2 probabilities show Gremio at 44%, Bahia at 30%, and a draw at 26%. The most likely scoreline is 2-1, with a 10% chance. Gremio has an expected goals figure of 1.84, while Bahia stands at 1.15.
Both teams to score has a probability of 58%, and Over 2.5 goals is at 57%. Gremio's recent form is D-L-W-W-W-L, while Bahia has L-W-D-L-W-L. The head-to-head results show Gremio with 1 win, 1 draw, and Bahia with 1 win in the last 3 encounters. The confidence grade for this match is C, indicating some uncertainty in the predictions.
Gremio vs Bahia: model vs market
| Source | Gremio | Draw | Bahia |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 53% | 25% | 23% |
| Market | 42% | 27% | 31% |
| Published | 45% | 26% | 29% |
| Edge | +3% | 0% | -2% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.84 vs 1.15.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
- The market prices Gremio below our published probability: +2.7 percentage points of edge.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.31, recorded — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: +2.8% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Gremio vs Bahia odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Gremio, 26 snapshots since 2026-11-02.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gremio | 2.33 | 2.25 | -0.08 |
| Draw | 3.46 | 3.50 | +0.04 |
| Bahia | 2.88 | 3.00 | +0.12 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Gremio and Bahia expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.98
- Attack rating (Gremio / Bahia)
- 1.02 / 1.12
- Defence rating (Gremio / Bahia)
- 0.96 / 1.18
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Gremio vs Bahia score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Gremio goals. Columns: Bahia goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Gremio vs Bahia goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 58%
- No goals (0–0)
- 6%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Gremio vs Bahia
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Gremio | 45% | 2.25 |
| Draw | 26% | 3.79 | |
| Bahia | 29% | 3.43 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 57% | 1.74 |
| Under 2.5 | 43% | 2.34 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 58% | 1.71 |
| No | 42% | 2.41 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Gremio or draw) | 71% | 1.41 |
| 12 (either side) | 74% | 1.36 | |
| X2 (draw or Bahia) | 55% | 1.80 | |
| Handicap -1 | Gremio win by 2+ | 30% | 3.29 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Gremio and Bahia recent form
Gremio
3W 1D 2L
Bahia
2W 1D 3L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Gremio at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 8-5-4
- Win rate
- 47%
- Goals for / match
- 1.59
- Goals against / match
- 1.24
- Clean sheets
- 5 of 17
- They have won 9 of their 33 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They average 1.6 goals per game at home against 0.6 on the road.
- They have kept 8 clean sheets in 33 matches.
- They have failed to score in 10 of 33 matches.
- 30% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Bahia away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 6-5-6
- Win rate
- 35%
- Goals for / match
- 1.41
- Goals against / match
- 1.53
- Clean sheets
- 4 of 17
- They have won 14 of their 33 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They have kept 9 clean sheets in 33 matches.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 33 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
- They have converted 8 of 11 penalties (73%).
- 38% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Gremio at home only, Bahia away only.
Gremio vs Bahia head-to-head
Last 3 meetings: Gremio 1 · draws 1 · Bahia 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-17 | Bahia | 1-1 | Gremio | Brazil Serie A |
| 2025-10-19 | Bahia | 4-0 | Gremio | Brazil Serie A |
| 2025-05-25 | Gremio | 1-0 | Bahia | Brazil Serie A |
Other Matchday 35 fixtures
- Coritiba vs Santos — team news & stats 2026-11-18
- Remo vs Chapecoense-sc 2026-11-18
- Flamengo vs Atletico Paranaense — team news & stats 2026-11-18
- Cruzeiro vs Palmeiras 2026-11-18
- Corinthians v Botafogo — match page 2026-11-19
- Vasco DA Gama vs Internacional — team news & stats 2026-11-19
- Vitoria v RB Bragantino — match page 2026-11-19
- Sao Paulo v Fluminense — match page 2026-11-20
Before and after this match
- Gremio, previous: Atletico-MG v Gremio analysis
- Bahia, previous: Cruzeiro vs Bahia prediction