Sao Paulo vs Fluminense preview
In the fixture between Sao Paulo and Fluminense, the 1X2 probabilities show Sao Paulo at 39%, while Fluminense sits at 31%. The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 1-0, which occurs with a 10% chance. The expected goals are 1.13 for Sao Paulo and 1.17 for Fluminense, indicating a closely matched contest.
Both teams to score has a probability of 48%, while Over 2.5 goals stands at 40%. Sao Paulo's recent form includes two wins and a draw in their last five matches, while Fluminense has won two of their last five. This recent form could influence the outcome, making it possible for the match to deviate from the predicted scoreline.
Sao Paulo vs Fluminense: model vs market
| Source | Sao Paulo | Draw | Fluminense |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 34% | 31% | 35% |
| Market | 41% | 29% | 30% |
| Published | 39% | 30% | 32% |
| Edge | -2% | 0% | +1% |
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.42, recorded — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -5.9% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Sao Paulo vs Fluminense odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Sao Paulo, 20 snapshots since 2026-11-05.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sao Paulo | 2.20 | 2.30 | +0.10 |
| Draw | 3.26 | 3.23 | -0.03 |
| Fluminense | 3.34 | 3.08 | -0.26 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Sao Paulo and Fluminense expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.30
- Attack rating (Sao Paulo / Fluminense)
- 0.83 / 1.24
- Defence rating (Sao Paulo / Fluminense)
- 0.89 / 0.89
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Sao Paulo vs Fluminense score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Sao Paulo goals. Columns: Fluminense goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Sao Paulo vs Fluminense goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 48%
- No goals (0–0)
- 11%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Sao Paulo vs Fluminense
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Sao Paulo | 39% | 2.57 |
| Draw | 30% | 3.39 | |
| Fluminense | 32% | 3.16 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 40% | 2.47 |
| Under 2.5 | 60% | 1.68 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 48% | 2.08 |
| No | 52% | 1.93 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Sao Paulo or draw) | 68% | 1.46 |
| 12 (either side) | 70% | 1.42 | |
| X2 (draw or Fluminense) | 61% | 1.64 | |
| Handicap -1 | Sao Paulo win by 2+ | 14% | 7.03 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 19% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Sao Paulo and Fluminense recent form
Sao Paulo
2W 2D 2L
Fluminense
3W 0D 3L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Sao Paulo at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 10-4-3
- Win rate
- 59%
- Goals for / match
- 1.47
- Goals against / match
- 0.76
- Clean sheets
- 7 of 17
- They have won 12 of their 33 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They average 1.6 goals per game at home against 0.8 on the road.
- They have kept 7 clean sheets in 33 matches.
- They have failed to score in 7 of 33 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
- They have converted 6 of 6 penalties (100%).
- 45% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Fluminense away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 4-6-7
- Win rate
- 24%
- Goals for / match
- 1.41
- Goals against / match
- 1.47
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 17
- They have won 15 of their 33 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
- They average 1.8 goals per game at home against 1.3 on the road.
- They have kept 6 clean sheets in 33 matches.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 33 matches.
- 32% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Sao Paulo at home only, Fluminense away only.
Sao Paulo vs Fluminense head-to-head
Last 3 meetings: Sao Paulo 1 · draws 0 · Fluminense 2.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-16 | Fluminense | 2-1 | Sao Paulo | Brazil Serie A |
| 2025-11-27 | Fluminense | 6-0 | Sao Paulo | Brazil Serie A |
| 2025-07-27 | Sao Paulo | 3-1 | Fluminense | Brazil Serie A |
Other Matchday 35 fixtures
- Coritiba vs Santos — team news & stats 2026-11-18
- Remo vs Chapecoense-sc 2026-11-18
- Flamengo vs Atletico Paranaense — team news & stats 2026-11-18
- Cruzeiro vs Palmeiras 2026-11-18
- Gremio vs Bahia 2026-11-19
- Corinthians v Botafogo — match page 2026-11-19
- Vasco DA Gama vs Internacional — team news & stats 2026-11-19
- Vitoria v RB Bragantino — match page 2026-11-19
Before and after this match
- Sao Paulo, previous: Sao Paulo vs Corinthians prediction
- Fluminense, previous: Vitoria – Fluminense, 2026-11-06