Vitoria vs Fluminense preview
In the Brazil Serie A fixture between Vitoria and Fluminense, the 1X2 probabilities show Vitoria at 34%, Fluminense at 38%, and a draw at 29%. The most likely scoreline is 0-1, which occurs 8% of the time according to our model.
Vitoria's recent form includes 1 win and 5 losses, while Fluminense has 1 win and 5 losses as well. The expected goals are 1.33 for Vitoria and 1.27 for Fluminense. With 48% for Over 2.5 goals and 54% for both teams to score, the match could see more goals than anticipated if the teams perform above their recent form.
Vitoria vs Fluminense: model vs market
| Source | Vitoria | Draw | Fluminense |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 37% | 29% | 34% |
| Market | 34% | 29% | 37% |
| Published | 35% | 29% | 36% |
| Edge | +1% | 0% | -1% |
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.60, recorded — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -5.3% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Vitoria vs Fluminense odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Fluminense, 12 snapshots since 2026-10-29.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Vitoria | 3.04 | 2.75 | -0.29 |
| Draw | 3.30 | 3.27 | -0.02 |
| Fluminense | 2.30 | 2.52 | +0.23 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Vitoria and Fluminense expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.61
- Attack rating (Vitoria / Fluminense)
- 0.89 / 1.13
- Defence rating (Vitoria / Fluminense)
- 1.06 / 0.98
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Vitoria vs Fluminense score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Vitoria goals. Columns: Fluminense goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Vitoria vs Fluminense goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 54%
- No goals (0–0)
- 9%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Vitoria vs Fluminense
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Vitoria | 35% | 2.87 |
| Draw | 29% | 3.48 | |
| Fluminense | 36% | 2.75 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 48% | 2.07 |
| Under 2.5 | 52% | 1.93 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 54% | 1.84 |
| No | 46% | 2.19 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Vitoria or draw) | 64% | 1.57 |
| 12 (either side) | 71% | 1.40 | |
| X2 (draw or Fluminense) | 65% | 1.54 | |
| Handicap -1 | Fluminense win by 2+ | 15% | 6.50 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 19% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Vitoria and Fluminense recent form
Vitoria
1W 2D 3L
Fluminense
2W 0D 4L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Vitoria at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 10-2-4
- Win rate
- 62%
- Goals for / match
- 1.44
- Goals against / match
- 0.81
- Clean sheets
- 10 of 16
- They have won 10 of their 32 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They average 1.4 goals per game at home against 0.8 on the road.
- They have kept 11 clean sheets in 32 matches.
- They have failed to score in 9 of 32 matches.
- They have converted 4 of 4 penalties (100%).
Fluminense away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-6-7
- Win rate
- 19%
- Goals for / match
- 1.31
- Goals against / match
- 1.56
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 16
- They have won 14 of their 32 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
- They average 1.8 goals per game at home against 1.3 on the road.
- They have kept 6 clean sheets in 32 matches.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 32 matches.
- 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Vitoria at home only, Fluminense away only.
Vitoria vs Fluminense head-to-head
Last 3 meetings: Vitoria 0 · draws 2 · Fluminense 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-09 | Fluminense | 2-2 | Vitoria | Brazil Serie A |
| 2025-09-20 | Vitoria | 0-1 | Fluminense | Brazil Serie A |
| 2025-04-20 | Fluminense | 1-1 | Vitoria | Brazil Serie A |
Other Matchday 34 fixtures
- Chapecoense-sc vs Mirassol — team news & stats 2026-11-03
- Internacional vs Coritiba 2026-11-04
- Flamengo v Gremio — match page 2026-11-04
- Atletico Paranaense vs Vasco DA Gama 2026-11-04
- Botafogo v Atletico-MG — match page 2026-11-05
- Sao Paulo vs Corinthians 2026-11-05
- Palmeiras vs Remo — team news & stats 2026-11-05
- Cruzeiro v Bahia — match page 2026-11-06
Before and after this match
- Vitoria, previous: Coritiba – Vitoria, 2026-10-31
- Fluminense, previous: Fluminense vs Internacional prediction