Updated

Brazil Serie A · Matchday 34

Sao Paulo vs Corinthians

· Estadio Do MorumBIS, Sao Paulo· Referee R. Claus

Alin prediction Sao Paulo to win

Cblended with market odds

Predicted score 1 – 0

11% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
Sao PauloDrawCorinthians
  • WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.75 vs 0.92.
  • RiskGrade C: weaker evidence — both clubs are rated on goals scored and conceded, not on the chances they created.
Best market odds
Sao Paulo2.31 Draw3.30 Corinthians3.40

Price as of

Expected return at 2.31: +4.1% per unit staked

18+ · T&Cs apply · best price across 9 bookmakers, each at its own last update; the highlighted price is our pick.

Sao Paulo vs Corinthians preview

In the fixture between Sao Paulo and Corinthians, the 1X2 probabilities show Sao Paulo at 47% and Corinthians at 25%. The most likely scoreline predicted is 1-0, with an 11% chance. Sao Paulo has an expected goals figure of 1.74, while Corinthians sits at 0.92.

Both teams to score is at 51%, suggesting a close match, while Over 2.5 goals stands at 50%. Recent form indicates Sao Paulo has L-D-W-W-L-L, while Corinthians has W-L-D-L-L-L. The head-to-head record shows Sao Paulo with 1 win and Corinthians with 2 wins in the last 3 encounters. A confidence grade of C indicates uncertainty, which could affect the outcome.

Sao Paulo vs Corinthians: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceSao PauloDrawCorinthians
Model56%26%18%
Market42%30%29%
Published45%29%26%
Edge+4%-1%-3%
  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.75 vs 0.92.
  • Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
  • The market prices Sao Paulo below our published probability: +3.6 percentage points of edge.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.31, recorded — the top price across the 9 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: +4.1% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).

Sao Paulo vs Corinthians odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Sao Paulo, 16 snapshots since 2026-10-27.

Opened 2.05Now 2.29 +0.24
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Sao Paulo2.052.29+0.24
Draw3.163.20+0.04
Corinthians3.803.30-0.50

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Sao Paulo and Corinthians expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.75Sao Paulo
0.92Corinthians
Total expected goals
2.66
Attack rating (Sao Paulo / Corinthians)
0.91 / 0.89
Defence rating (Sao Paulo / Corinthians)
0.97 / 1.25

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Sao Paulo vs Corinthians score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 8.1% 5.3% 2.9% 0.9% 0.2% 1 11.1% 12.3% 5.1% 1.6% 0.4% 2 10.6% 9.7% 4.5% 1.4% 0.4% 3 6.2% 5.7% 2.6% 0.8% 0.2% 4+ 4.0% 3.7% 1.7% 0.5% 0.1%

Rows: Sao Paulo goals. Columns: Corinthians goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Sao Paulo vs Corinthians goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 92%
Over 1.5 76%
Over 2.5 50%
Over 3.5 28%
Both teams to score
51%
No goals (0–0)
8%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Sao Paulo vs Corinthians

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Sao Paulo45%2.22
Draw29%3.48
Corinthians26%3.82
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.550%2.01
Under 2.550%1.99
Both teams to scoreYes51%1.98
No49%2.02
Double chance1X (Sao Paulo or draw)74%1.36
12 (either side)71%1.40
X2 (draw or Corinthians)55%1.82
Handicap -1Sao Paulo win by 2+32%3.12
Push (exactly one goal)24%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Compare the market for this pick

Where to bet on this match in Kenya

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Sao Paulo and Corinthians recent form

Sao Paulo 2W 1D 3L
Corinthians 1W 1D 4L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Sao Paulo at home

Record (W-D-L)
10-3-3
Win rate
62%
Goals for / match
1.56
Goals against / match
0.81
Clean sheets
6 of 16
  • They have won 12 of their 33 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
  • They average 1.6 goals per game at home against 0.8 on the road.
  • They have kept 7 clean sheets in 33 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 7 of 33 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
  • They have converted 6 of 6 penalties (100%).
  • 45% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Corinthians away

Record (W-D-L)
3-5-8
Win rate
19%
Goals for / match
1.12
Goals against / match
1.56
Clean sheets
4 of 16
  • They have won 9 of their 33 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
  • They have kept 11 clean sheets in 33 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 7 of 33 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
  • 42% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

League matches this season before kick-off: Sao Paulo at home only, Corinthians away only.

Injuries & availability

Sao Paulo absences

  • Artur back injury
  • Buta knee injury
  • D. Duarte knee injury
  • Ferreira injury
  • Marcos Antonio ankle injury
  • N. Bosshardt knee injury
  • Sabino yellow cards

Corinthians absences

  • Alex Santana inactive
  • Gabriel Paulista inactive
  • Kayke knee injury
  • M. Depay inactive
  • Matheuzinho yellow cards
  • Raniele inactive
  • Z. Labyad knee injury

Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider; confirmed line-ups appear about 40 minutes before kick-off.

Sao Paulo vs Corinthians head-to-head

Last 10 meetings: Sao Paulo 6 · draws 2 · Corinthians 2.

Sao PauloDrawsCorinthians
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-05-10Corinthians3-2Sao PauloBrazil Serie A
2026-01-18Corinthians1-1Sao PauloPaulista - A1
2025-11-20Corinthians3-1Sao PauloBrazil Serie A
2025-07-20Sao Paulo2-0CorinthiansBrazil Serie A
2025-01-26Sao Paulo3-1CorinthiansPaulista - A1
2024-09-29Sao Paulo3-1CorinthiansSerie A
2024-06-16Corinthians2-2Sao PauloSerie A
2024-01-30Corinthians1-2Sao PauloPaulista - A1
2023-09-30Sao Paulo2-1CorinthiansSerie A
2023-08-16Sao Paulo2-0CorinthiansCopa Do Brasil

Other Matchday 34 fixtures

Before and after this match

Prediction snapshot Sao Paulo to win Predicted score 1 – 0 C Bet on Sao Paulo
Our pick: Sao Paulo to win 18+ Bet Now