Vitoria vs RB Bragantino preview
In the match between Vitoria and RB Bragantino, the 1X2 probabilities show RB Bragantino at 39%, Vitoria at 33%, and a draw at 28%. The most likely scoreline is 0-1, with a 10% chance according to our model. Vitoria's recent form is L-L-D-D-L-W, while RB Bragantino has a stronger record with W-W-L-D-W-D.
The expected goals are 1.15 for Vitoria and 1.41 for RB Bragantino. While both teams to score stands at 53%, the likelihood of Over 2.5 goals is 47%. This suggests a close contest, but Vitoria's struggle for consistency could lead to a different outcome than predicted.
Vitoria vs RB Bragantino: model vs market
| Source | Vitoria | Draw | RB Bragantino |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 30% | 29% | 42% |
| Market | 35% | 28% | 38% |
| Published | 33% | 28% | 39% |
| Edge | -1% | 0% | +1% |
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.58, recorded — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -0.0% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Vitoria vs RB Bragantino odds movement
Median bookmaker price on RB Bragantino, 25 snapshots since 2026-11-02.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Vitoria | 2.48 | 2.70 | +0.22 |
| Draw | 3.44 | 3.40 | -0.04 |
| RB Bragantino | 2.70 | 2.48 | -0.23 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Vitoria and RB Bragantino expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.56
- Attack rating (Vitoria / RB Bragantino)
- 0.77 / 1.11
- Defence rating (Vitoria / RB Bragantino)
- 1.20 / 0.98
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Vitoria vs RB Bragantino score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Vitoria goals. Columns: RB Bragantino goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Vitoria vs RB Bragantino goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 53%
- No goals (0–0)
- 9%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Vitoria vs RB Bragantino
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Vitoria | 33% | 3.00 |
| Draw | 28% | 3.59 | |
| RB Bragantino | 39% | 2.58 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 47% | 2.12 |
| Under 2.5 | 53% | 1.90 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 53% | 1.89 |
| No | 47% | 2.13 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Vitoria or draw) | 61% | 1.63 |
| 12 (either side) | 72% | 1.39 | |
| X2 (draw or RB Bragantino) | 67% | 1.50 | |
| Handicap -1 | RB Bragantino win by 2+ | 20% | 4.90 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Vitoria and RB Bragantino recent form
Vitoria
1W 2D 3L
RB Bragantino
3W 2D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Vitoria at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 10-2-5
- Win rate
- 59%
- Goals for / match
- 1.35
- Goals against / match
- 0.94
- Clean sheets
- 10 of 17
- They have won 10 of their 33 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They average 1.4 goals per game at home against 0.7 on the road.
- They have kept 11 clean sheets in 33 matches.
- They have failed to score in 10 of 33 matches.
- They have converted 4 of 4 penalties (100%).
RB Bragantino away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 4-5-8
- Win rate
- 24%
- Goals for / match
- 0.88
- Goals against / match
- 1.24
- Clean sheets
- 3 of 17
- They have won 12 of their 33 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They average 1.7 goals per game at home against 0.9 on the road.
- They have kept 9 clean sheets in 33 matches.
- They have failed to score in 8 of 33 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 2 of 5 penalties (40%).
- 31% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Vitoria at home only, RB Bragantino away only.
Vitoria vs RB Bragantino head-to-head
Last 3 meetings: Vitoria 1 · draws 0 · RB Bragantino 2.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-17 | RB Bragantino | 2-0 | Vitoria | Brazil Serie A |
| 2025-12-03 | RB Bragantino | 4-0 | Vitoria | Brazil Serie A |
| 2025-07-20 | Vitoria | 1-0 | RB Bragantino | Brazil Serie A |
Other Matchday 35 fixtures
- Coritiba vs Santos — team news & stats 2026-11-18
- Remo vs Chapecoense-sc 2026-11-18
- Flamengo vs Atletico Paranaense — team news & stats 2026-11-18
- Cruzeiro vs Palmeiras 2026-11-18
- Gremio vs Bahia 2026-11-19
- Corinthians v Botafogo — match page 2026-11-19
- Vasco DA Gama vs Internacional — team news & stats 2026-11-19
- Sao Paulo v Fluminense — match page 2026-11-20
Before and after this match
- Vitoria, previous: Vitoria – Fluminense, 2026-11-06
- RB Bragantino, previous: RB Bragantino v Santos analysis