Coritiba vs Santos preview
In the match between Coritiba and Santos, the 1X2 probabilities show Santos at 42% to win, while Coritiba sits at 31%. The most likely scoreline is 0-1, which aligns with expected goals of 1.19 for Coritiba and 1.26 for Santos. The confidence grade is C, indicating uncertainty around the outcome.
While both teams to score stands at 51% and Over 2.5 goals at 44%, these figures suggest that goals could be limited. Coritiba's recent form includes 1 win in their last 6 matches, while Santos has 1 win in their last 6 as well. This form could impact the match, potentially leading to a lower-scoring affair than expected.
Coritiba vs Santos: model vs market
| Source | Coritiba | Draw | Santos |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 33% | 30% | 37% |
| Market | 28% | 26% | 46% |
| Published | 29% | 27% | 43% |
| Edge | +1% | +1% | -2% |
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.18, recorded — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -5.3% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Coritiba vs Santos odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Santos, 26 snapshots since 2026-11-02.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Coritiba | 2.60 | 3.32 | +0.72 |
| Draw | 3.46 | 3.54 | +0.08 |
| Santos | 2.55 | 2.04 | -0.50 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Coritiba and Santos expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.45
- Attack rating (Coritiba / Santos)
- 0.76 / 1.03
- Defence rating (Coritiba / Santos)
- 1.16 / 1.01
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Coritiba vs Santos score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Coritiba goals. Columns: Santos goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Coritiba vs Santos goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 51%
- No goals (0–0)
- 10%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Coritiba vs Santos
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Coritiba | 29% | 3.40 |
| Draw | 27% | 3.68 | |
| Santos | 43% | 2.30 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 44% | 2.26 |
| Under 2.5 | 56% | 1.79 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 51% | 1.96 |
| No | 49% | 2.04 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Coritiba or draw) | 57% | 1.77 |
| 12 (either side) | 73% | 1.37 | |
| X2 (draw or Santos) | 71% | 1.42 | |
| Handicap -1 | Santos win by 2+ | 17% | 5.96 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Coritiba and Santos recent form
Coritiba
1W 1D 4L
Santos
1W 3D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Coritiba at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 6-5-6
- Win rate
- 35%
- Goals for / match
- 1.29
- Goals against / match
- 1.24
- Clean sheets
- 3 of 17
- They have won 11 of their 33 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They have kept 7 clean sheets in 33 matches.
- They have failed to score in 11 of 33 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- 34% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Santos away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 6-4-7
- Win rate
- 35%
- Goals for / match
- 1.59
- Goals against / match
- 1.65
- Clean sheets
- 3 of 17
- They have won 12 of their 33 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They have kept 7 clean sheets in 33 matches.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 33 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 5 matches.
- They have converted 8 of 8 penalties (100%).
- 31% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Coritiba at home only, Santos away only.
Coritiba vs Santos head-to-head
Last 3 meetings: Coritiba 1 · draws 1 · Santos 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-17 | Santos | 0-3 | Coritiba | Brazil Serie A |
| 2026-05-13 | Coritiba | 0-2 | Santos | Copa Do Brasil |
| 2026-04-22 | Santos | 0-0 | Coritiba | Copa Do Brasil |
Other Matchday 35 fixtures
- Remo vs Chapecoense-sc 2026-11-18
- Flamengo vs Atletico Paranaense — team news & stats 2026-11-18
- Cruzeiro vs Palmeiras 2026-11-18
- Gremio vs Bahia 2026-11-19
- Corinthians v Botafogo — match page 2026-11-19
- Vasco DA Gama vs Internacional — team news & stats 2026-11-19
- Vitoria v RB Bragantino — match page 2026-11-19
- Sao Paulo v Fluminense — match page 2026-11-20
Before and after this match
- Coritiba, previous: Internacional – Coritiba, 2026-11-04
- Santos, previous: RB Bragantino v Santos analysis