Updated

Brazil Serie A · Matchday 21

Chapecoense-sc vs Vasco DA Gama

· Arena Condá, Chapeco· Referee R. Pereira

Alin prediction Vasco DA Gama to win

Cblended with market odds

Predicted score 1 – 2

10% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
Chapecoense-scDrawVasco DA Gama
  • WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.74 vs 1.16.
  • RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Vasco DA Gama is the favourite, not a value bet.
Best market odds
Chapecoense-sc8.00 Draw5.07 Vasco DA Gama1.44

Price as of

Expected return at 1.44: -9.3% per unit staked

18+ · T&Cs apply · best price across 9 bookmakers, each at its own last update; the highlighted price is our pick.

Chapecoense-sc vs Vasco DA Gama preview

In the upcoming match between Chapecoense-sc and Vasco DA Gama, the 1X2 probabilities show Vasco DA Gama at 62% to win, compared to Chapecoense-sc's 16%. The most likely scoreline is 1-2, which aligns with Vasco's expected goals of 1.74 against Chapecoense-sc's 1.16.

Both teams to score stands at 58%, while Over 2.5 goals is at 55%. Chapecoense-sc's recent form shows 5 losses in their last 6 matches, while Vasco DA Gama has a mixed record with 3 wins in their last 6. The confidence grade for this match is C, indicating some uncertainty in the predictions.

Chapecoense-sc vs Vasco DA Gama: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceChapecoense-scDrawVasco DA Gama
Model24%26%50%
Market13%20%67%
Published16%21%63%
Edge+3%+2%-4%
  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.74 vs 1.16.
  • Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.44, recorded — the top price across the 9 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -9.3% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).

Chapecoense-sc vs Vasco DA Gama odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Vasco DA Gama, 14 snapshots since 2026-11-08.

Opened 1.61Now 1.40 -0.21
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Chapecoense-sc5.077.40+2.33
Draw4.074.75+0.68
Vasco DA Gama1.611.40-0.21

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Chapecoense-sc and Vasco DA Gama expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.16Chapecoense-sc
1.74Vasco DA Gama
Total expected goals
2.90
Attack rating (Chapecoense-sc / Vasco DA Gama)
0.77 / 1.14
Defence rating (Chapecoense-sc / Vasco DA Gama)
1.44 / 0.99

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Chapecoense-sc vs Vasco DA Gama score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 6.6% 8.5% 8.3% 4.8% 3.1% 1 5.3% 12.2% 9.7% 5.6% 3.6% 2 3.7% 6.5% 5.6% 3.2% 2.1% 3 1.4% 2.5% 2.2% 1.3% 0.8% 4+ 0.5% 0.9% 0.8% 0.5% 0.3%

Rows: Chapecoense-sc goals. Columns: Vasco DA Gama goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Chapecoense-sc vs Vasco DA Gama goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 93%
Over 1.5 80%
Over 2.5 55%
Over 3.5 33%
Both teams to score
58%
No goals (0–0)
7%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Chapecoense-sc vs Vasco DA Gama

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Chapecoense-sc16%6.38
Draw21%4.68
Vasco DA Gama63%1.59
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.555%1.81
Under 2.545%2.24
Both teams to scoreYes58%1.73
No42%2.37
Double chance1X (Chapecoense-sc or draw)37%2.70
12 (either side)79%1.27
X2 (draw or Vasco DA Gama)84%1.19
Handicap -1Vasco DA Gama win by 2+28%3.61
Push (exactly one goal)22%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Compare the market for this pick

Where to bet on this match in Kenya

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Chapecoense-sc and Vasco DA Gama recent form

Chapecoense-sc 1W 0D 5L
Vasco DA Gama 3W 0D 3L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Chapecoense-sc at home

Record (W-D-L)
3-5-8
Win rate
19%
Goals for / match
1.38
Goals against / match
2.25
Clean sheets
2 of 16
  • They have won 4 of their 33 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
  • They average 1.4 goals per game at home against 0.6 on the road.
  • They have failed to score in 11 of 33 matches.
  • They have converted 2 of 3 penalties (67%).

Vasco DA Gama away

Record (W-D-L)
3-5-8
Win rate
19%
Goals for / match
1.12
Goals against / match
1.62
Clean sheets
1 of 16
  • They have won 11 of their 33 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
  • They have kept 4 clean sheets in 33 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 10 of 33 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.

League matches this season before kick-off: Chapecoense-sc at home only, Vasco DA Gama away only.

Expected lineups

Chapecoense-sc lineup · 4-2-3-1

  1. 14 Gabriel Werner
  2. 91 Bruno Pacheco
  3. 21 Kauan
  4. 25 Victor Caetano
  5. 5 Heitor
  6. 88 Yago Felipe
  7. 27 Camilo
  8. 77 Dylan Borrero
  9. 10 Giovanni Augusto
  10. 22 Max
  11. 9 Tulio Eduardo

Bench: Mancha, Robert Santos, Fernando, David Antunes, Bruno Tubarão, Matheus, Vinícius Eduardo de Almeida, Rodrigo Endrio, Rosivan, Rubens Tadeu, Miguel Carvalho

Vasco DA Gama lineup · 4-1-4-1

  1. 1 Léo Jardim
  2. 6 Lucas Piton
  3. 30 Robert Renan
  4. 4 Alan Saldivia
  5. 2 Puma Rodríguez
  6. 8 Jair
  7. 9 Facundo Colidio
  8. 11 Andrés Gómez
  9. 22 Alan Lescano
  10. 18 Marino Hinestroza
  11. 19 Bruno Duarte

Bench: David, Johan Rojas, Daniel Fuzato, Brenner, Adson, Lucas Freitas, Loide Augusto, Gabriel Pereira, Cuiabano, Ramon Rique, Mateus Carvalho, Paulo Henrique

Chapecoense-sc vs Vasco DA Gama head-to-head

Last 10 meetings: Chapecoense-sc 1 · draws 7 · Vasco DA Gama 2.

Chapecoense-scDrawsVasco DA Gama
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-02-05Vasco DA Gama1-1Chapecoense-scBrazil Serie A
2022-07-31Vasco DA Gama0-0Chapecoense-scSerie B
2022-04-23Chapecoense-sc0-0Vasco DA GamaSerie B
2019-12-08Vasco DA Gama1-1Chapecoense-scSerie A
2019-09-14Chapecoense-sc1-2Vasco DA GamaSerie A
2018-08-26Vasco DA Gama3-1Chapecoense-scSerie A
2018-04-22Chapecoense-sc1-1Vasco DA GamaSerie A
2017-09-30Vasco DA Gama1-1Chapecoense-scSerie A
2017-06-15Chapecoense-sc2-1Vasco DA GamaSerie A
2015-10-15Vasco DA Gama1-1Chapecoense-scSerie A

Before and after this match

Prediction snapshot Vasco DA Gama to win Predicted score 1 – 2 C Bet on Vasco DA Gama
Our pick: Vasco DA Gama to win 18+ Bet Now