Green Eagles vs Red Arrows Prediction & Betting Tips 14/10/2026

Green Eagles vs Red Arrows preview

In the upcoming match between Green Eagles and Red Arrows, the 1X2 probabilities show Red Arrows at 39% and Green Eagles at 27%. The most likely scoreline predicted is 0-1, occurring with a 14% chance. Green Eagles have an expected goals figure of 0.85, while Red Arrows sit higher at 1.07.

Recent form favors Red Arrows, who have won 5 of their last 6 matches, compared to Green Eagles' mixed results with 3 wins in their last 6. Both teams to score stands at 39%, indicating a reasonable chance for goals from both sides. However, if Green Eagles improve their attacking output, they could challenge the predictions.

Green Eagles vs Red Arrows: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
Source	Green Eagles	Draw	Red Arrows
Model	27%	34%	39%
Market	—	—	—
Published	27%	34%	39%
Edge	—	—	—

Better recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 3 for the opposition.

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).

Green Eagles and Red Arrows expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

0.85Green Eagles

1.07Red Arrows

Total expected goals: 1.93
Attack rating (Green Eagles / Red Arrows): 1.26 / 1.52
Defence rating (Green Eagles / Red Arrows): 0.99 / 0.65

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Green Eagles vs Red Arrows score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 15.9% 14.3% 8.4% 3.0% 1.0% 1 11.1% 14.7% 7.2% 2.6% 0.9% 2 5.3% 5.7% 3.1% 1.1% 0.4% 3 1.5% 1.6% 0.9% 0.3% 0.1% 4+ 0.4% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0%

Rows: Green Eagles goals. Columns: Red Arrows goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Green Eagles vs Red Arrows goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 84%

Over 1.5 59%

Over 2.5 30%

Over 3.5 13%

Both teams to score: 39%
No goals (0–0): 16%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Green Eagles vs Red Arrows

Published probability and fair odds per market
Market	Selection	Probability	Fair odds
1X2	Green Eagles	27%	3.68
	Draw	34%	2.95
	Red Arrows	39%	2.57
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	30%	3.29
	Under 2.5	70%	1.44
Both teams to score	Yes	39%	2.56
	No	61%	1.64
Double chance	1X (Green Eagles or draw)	61%	1.64
	12 (either side)	66%	1.51
	X2 (draw or Red Arrows)	73%	1.37
Handicap -1	Red Arrows win by 2+	16%	6.16
	Push (exactly one goal)	23%	—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

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Where to bet on this match in Kenya

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