Mufulira Wanderers vs Nkwazi Prediction & Betting Tips 14/10/2026

Mufulira Wanderers vs Nkwazi preview

Mufulira Wanderers face Nkwazi with a 25% chance for Mufulira to win, 38% for a draw, and 37% for Nkwazi to win. The most likely scoreline is 0-0 at 22%. Both teams have struggled recently, with Mufulira's last five matches showing L-L-D-L-L-W, while Nkwazi has L-L-W-W-D-L.

The expected goals are 0.69 for Mufulira and 0.88 for Nkwazi, indicating a low-scoring match. With only 21% for Over 2.5 goals and 30% for both teams to score, the game may not see many goals. The confidence grade is C, suggesting uncertainty in the outcome.

Mufulira Wanderers vs Nkwazi: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
Source	Mufulira Wanderers	Draw	Nkwazi
Model	25%	38%	37%
Market	—	—	—
Published	25%	38%	37%
Edge	—	—	—

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).

Mufulira Wanderers and Nkwazi expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

0.69Mufulira Wanderers

0.88Nkwazi

Total expected goals: 1.57
Attack rating (Mufulira Wanderers / Nkwazi): 0.71 / 0.84
Defence rating (Mufulira Wanderers / Nkwazi): 1.46 / 0.92

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Mufulira Wanderers vs Nkwazi score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 22.2% 17.1% 8.1% 2.4% 0.6% 1 13.1% 13.9% 5.5% 1.6% 0.4% 2 4.9% 4.3% 1.9% 0.6% 0.1% 3 1.1% 1.0% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 4+ 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%

Rows: Mufulira Wanderers goals. Columns: Nkwazi goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Mufulira Wanderers vs Nkwazi goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 78%

Over 1.5 48%

Over 2.5 21%

Over 3.5 7%

Both teams to score: 30%
No goals (0–0): 22%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Mufulira Wanderers vs Nkwazi

Published probability and fair odds per market
Market	Selection	Probability	Fair odds
1X2	Mufulira Wanderers	25%	3.94
	Draw	38%	2.63
	Nkwazi	37%	2.73
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	21%	4.81
	Under 2.5	79%	1.26
Both teams to score	Yes	30%	3.30
	No	70%	1.43
Double chance	1X (Mufulira Wanderers or draw)	63%	1.58
	12 (either side)	62%	1.61
	X2 (draw or Nkwazi)	75%	1.34
Handicap -1	Nkwazi win by 2+	13%	7.52
	Push (exactly one goal)	23%	—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

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Where to bet on this match in Kenya

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