Updated

Zambia Super League · Matchday 3

Mufulira Wanderers vs Nkwazi

Full time1 – 1

Alin prediction was The draw

Cmodel only, no market oddsCorrect

Predicted score 0 – 0

42% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
Mufulira WanderersDrawNkwazi

Mufulira Wanderers vs Nkwazi: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceMufulira WanderersDrawNkwazi
Model17%51%33%
Market———
Published17%51%33%
Edge———

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).

Mufulira Wanderers and Nkwazi expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

0.33Mufulira Wanderers
0.56Nkwazi
Total expected goals
0.89
Attack rating (Mufulira Wanderers / Nkwazi)
0.54 / 0.67
Defence rating (Mufulira Wanderers / Nkwazi)
1.17 / 0.57

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Mufulira Wanderers vs Nkwazi score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 41.9% 22.3% 6.4% 1.2% 0.2% 1 12.8% 8.3% 2.1% 0.4% 0.1% 2 2.2% 1.2% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 3 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 4+ 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Rows: Mufulira Wanderers goals. Columns: Nkwazi goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Mufulira Wanderers vs Nkwazi goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 58%
Over 1.5 23%
Over 2.5 6%
Over 3.5 1%
Both teams to score
13%
No goals (0–0)
42%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Mufulira Wanderers vs Nkwazi

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Mufulira Wanderers17%5.99
Draw51%1.98
Nkwazi33%3.05
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.56%16.37
Under 2.594%1.07
Both teams to scoreYes13%7.82
No87%1.15
Double chance1X (Mufulira Wanderers or draw)67%1.49
12 (either side)49%2.02
X2 (draw or Nkwazi)83%1.20
Handicap -1Nkwazi win by 2+8%12.03
Push (exactly one goal)24%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Mufulira Wanderers and Nkwazi recent form

Mufulira Wanderers 0W 3D 3L
Nkwazi 1W 4D 1L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Mufulira Wanderers at home

Record (W-D-L)
0-0-2
Win rate
0%
Goals for / match
0.50
Goals against / match
2.50
Clean sheets
0 of 2
  • They have won 0 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 0.3 goals per match.
  • They have failed to score in 4 of 6 matches.

Nkwazi away

Record (W-D-L)
1-1-0
Win rate
50%
Goals for / match
0.50
Goals against / match
0.00
Clean sheets
2 of 2
  • They have won 1 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 0.3 goals per match.
  • They have kept 5 clean sheets in 6 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 4 of 6 matches.

League matches this season before kick-off: Mufulira Wanderers at home only, Nkwazi away only.

Mufulira Wanderers vs Nkwazi head-to-head

Last 10 meetings: Mufulira Wanderers 5 · draws 4 · Nkwazi 1.

Mufulira WanderersDrawsNkwazi
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-03-15Nkwazi1-1Mufulira WanderersZambia Super League
2025-10-17Mufulira Wanderers1-1NkwaziZambia Super League
2025-02-22Mufulira Wanderers2-1NkwaziSuper League
2024-10-19Nkwazi2-1Mufulira WanderersSuper League
2024-05-15Nkwazi0-1Mufulira WanderersSuper League
2023-12-02Mufulira Wanderers1-1NkwaziSuper League
2017-09-16Mufulira Wanderers3-1NkwaziSuper League
2017-05-24Nkwazi0-2Mufulira WanderersSuper League
2016-07-23Nkwazi1-1Mufulira WanderersSuper League
2016-03-26Mufulira Wanderers2-1NkwaziSuper League

Before and after this match