Mutondo Stars vs Mufulira Wanderers preview
In the Zambia Super League fixture between Mutondo Stars and Mufulira Wanderers, the 1X2 probabilities show Mutondo Stars at 44%, while Mufulira Wanderers sit at 23%. The most likely scoreline predicted is 1-0, with a 16% chance. Mutondo Stars have struggled recently, losing their last 5 matches, while Mufulira Wanderers have 1 win in their last 6 games.
The expected goals indicate Mutondo Stars at 1.18 and Mufulira Wanderers at 0.77, suggesting a tight match. The chances for Over 2.5 goals stand at 31%, and both teams to score is at 38%. These figures indicate a low-scoring game, but if either team finds their form, the outcome could differ.
Mutondo Stars vs Mufulira Wanderers: model vs market
| Source | Mutondo Stars | Draw | Mufulira Wanderers |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 48% | 33% | 19% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 48% | 33% | 19% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.21 vs 0.67.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
Mutondo Stars and Mufulira Wanderers expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 1.88
- Attack rating (Mutondo Stars / Mufulira Wanderers)
- 0.96 / 0.48
- Defence rating (Mutondo Stars / Mufulira Wanderers)
- 1.97 / 1.18
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Mutondo Stars vs Mufulira Wanderers score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Mutondo Stars goals. Columns: Mufulira Wanderers goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Mutondo Stars vs Mufulira Wanderers goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 36%
- No goals (0–0)
- 16%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Mutondo Stars vs Mufulira Wanderers
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Mutondo Stars | 48% | 2.08 |
| Draw | 33% | 3.05 | |
| Mufulira Wanderers | 19% | 5.21 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 29% | 3.43 |
| Under 2.5 | 71% | 1.41 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 36% | 2.81 |
| No | 64% | 1.55 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Mutondo Stars or draw) | 81% | 1.24 |
| 12 (either side) | 67% | 1.49 | |
| X2 (draw or Mufulira Wanderers) | 52% | 1.92 | |
| Handicap -1 | Mutondo Stars win by 2+ | 22% | 4.50 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 26% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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| 2 |  |
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| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Mutondo Stars and Mufulira Wanderers recent form
Mutondo Stars
0W 1D 5L
Mufulira Wanderers
0W 2D 4L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Mutondo Stars at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-1-1
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 1.00
- Goals against / match
- 2.00
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 2
- They have won 0 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 0.8 goals per match.
Mufulira Wanderers away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-2-1
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 0.00
- Goals against / match
- 0.33
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 3
- They have won 0 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 0.2 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 5 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: Mutondo Stars at home only, Mufulira Wanderers away only.
Mutondo Stars vs Mufulira Wanderers head-to-head
Last 6 meetings: Mutondo Stars 2 · draws 2 · Mufulira Wanderers 2.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-29 | Mufulira Wanderers | 1-0 | Mutondo Stars | Zambia Super League |
| 2025-11-30 | Mutondo Stars | 0-0 | Mufulira Wanderers | Zambia Super League |
| 2025-02-02 | Mutondo Stars | 0-1 | Mufulira Wanderers | Super League |
| 2024-09-21 | Mufulira Wanderers | 0-2 | Mutondo Stars | Super League |
| 2024-03-03 | Mufulira Wanderers | 0-0 | Mutondo Stars | Super League |
| 2023-09-30 | Mutondo Stars | 2-1 | Mufulira Wanderers | Super League |
Other Matchday 7 fixtures
- Kabwe Warriors v Roan United — match page 2026-11-04
- Nkana vs Kansanshi Dynamos 2026-11-04
- Red Arrows v Nkwazi — match page 2026-11-04
- NAPSA Stars vs Power Dynamos — team news & stats 2026-11-05
- Konkola Blades vs Trident 2026-11-05
- Green Buffaloes v ZESCO United — match page 2026-11-05
- Nchanga Rangers vs Makeni All Stars — team news & stats 2026-11-05
- Chirundu Utd v Green Eagles — match page 2026-11-05
Before and after this match
- Mutondo Stars, previous: Mutondo Stars vs Roan United: odds and pick
- Mufulira Wanderers, previous: Green Buffaloes v Mufulira Wanderers analysis