Green Buffaloes vs ZESCO United preview
In the Zambia Super League fixture between Green Buffaloes and ZESCO United, the 1X2 probabilities show Green Buffaloes at 24%, ZESCO United at 36%, and a draw at 40%. The most likely scoreline is 0-0, which has a 26% chance of occurring.
Both teams have shown mixed recent form, with Green Buffaloes winning 3 of their last 6 matches and ZESCO United winning 3 as well. However, with expected goals of 0.61 for Green Buffaloes and 0.81 for ZESCO United, the potential for Over 2.5 goals sits at only 17%. This could lead to a low-scoring match, making the prediction uncertain if either team finds their scoring touch.
Green Buffaloes vs ZESCO United: model vs market
| Source | Green Buffaloes | Draw | ZESCO United |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 24% | 40% | 36% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 24% | 40% | 36% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
Green Buffaloes and ZESCO United expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 1.41
- Attack rating (Green Buffaloes / ZESCO United)
- 0.86 / 1.72
- Defence rating (Green Buffaloes / ZESCO United)
- 0.66 / 0.66
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Green Buffaloes vs ZESCO United score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Green Buffaloes goals. Columns: ZESCO United goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Green Buffaloes vs ZESCO United goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 26%
- No goals (0–0)
- 26%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Green Buffaloes vs ZESCO United
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Green Buffaloes | 24% | 4.19 |
| Draw | 40% | 2.49 | |
| ZESCO United | 36% | 2.78 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 17% | 5.90 |
| Under 2.5 | 83% | 1.20 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 26% | 3.80 |
| No | 74% | 1.36 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Green Buffaloes or draw) | 64% | 1.56 |
| 12 (either side) | 60% | 1.67 | |
| X2 (draw or ZESCO United) | 76% | 1.31 | |
| Handicap -1 | ZESCO United win by 2+ | 12% | 8.15 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 24% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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| 2 |  |
First deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
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| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Green Buffaloes and ZESCO United recent form
Green Buffaloes
3W 2D 1L
ZESCO United
2W 3D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Green Buffaloes at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-1-0
- Win rate
- 67%
- Goals for / match
- 1.00
- Goals against / match
- 0.00
- Clean sheets
- 3 of 3
- They have won 3 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 5 matches.
ZESCO United away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-2-0
- Win rate
- 33%
- Goals for / match
- 1.67
- Goals against / match
- 0.33
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 3
- They have won 2 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 1.7 goals per match.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 6 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 6 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: Green Buffaloes at home only, ZESCO United away only.
Green Buffaloes vs ZESCO United head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: Green Buffaloes 3 · draws 2 · ZESCO United 5.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-01 | ZESCO United | 1-0 | Green Buffaloes | Zambia Super League |
| 2025-11-02 | Green Buffaloes | 2-1 | ZESCO United | Zambia Super League |
| 2025-03-13 | ZESCO United | 1-0 | Green Buffaloes | Super League |
| 2024-11-10 | Green Buffaloes | 1-1 | ZESCO United | Super League |
| 2024-03-09 | Green Buffaloes | 0-1 | ZESCO United | Super League |
| 2023-10-07 | ZESCO United | 1-0 | Green Buffaloes | Super League |
| 2023-04-22 | Green Buffaloes | 2-1 | ZESCO United | Super League |
| 2022-11-16 | ZESCO United | 1-3 | Green Buffaloes | Super League |
| 2022-02-26 | Green Buffaloes | 0-3 | ZESCO United | Super League |
| 2021-10-23 | ZESCO United | 1-1 | Green Buffaloes | Super League |
Other Matchday 7 fixtures
- Kabwe Warriors v Roan United — match page 2026-11-04
- Nkana vs Kansanshi Dynamos 2026-11-04
- Red Arrows v Nkwazi — match page 2026-11-04
- NAPSA Stars vs Power Dynamos — team news & stats 2026-11-05
- Konkola Blades vs Trident 2026-11-05
- Nchanga Rangers vs Makeni All Stars — team news & stats 2026-11-05
- Mutondo Stars vs Mufulira Wanderers 2026-11-05
- Chirundu Utd v Green Eagles — match page 2026-11-05
Before and after this match
- Green Buffaloes, previous: Green Buffaloes v Mufulira Wanderers analysis
- ZESCO United, previous: Nkwazi vs ZESCO United prediction