Red Arrows vs Nkwazi preview
In the upcoming match between Red Arrows and Nkwazi, the 1X2 probabilities show Red Arrows at 43%, a draw at 46%, and Nkwazi at 11%. The most likely scoreline is 0-0 at 38%, indicating a low-scoring match. Our model suggests that both teams to score is only 12%, and Over 2.5 goals is at 8%, reflecting the teams' struggle to find the net.
Red Arrows have a recent form of D-L-W-D-W-W, while Nkwazi has struggled with D-D-D-D-L-L. The expected goals for Red Arrows is 0.73 and for Nkwazi is just 0.24. A draw is plausible given the probabilities, but if either team finds their scoring touch, the outcome could differ significantly.
Red Arrows vs Nkwazi: model vs market
| Source | Red Arrows | Draw | Nkwazi |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 43% | 46% | 11% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 43% | 46% | 11% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
Red Arrows and Nkwazi expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 0.97
- Attack rating (Red Arrows / Nkwazi)
- 1.12 / 0.60
- Defence rating (Red Arrows / Nkwazi)
- 0.57 / 0.61
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Red Arrows vs Nkwazi score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Red Arrows goals. Columns: Nkwazi goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Red Arrows vs Nkwazi goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 12%
- No goals (0–0)
- 38%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Red Arrows vs Nkwazi
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Red Arrows | 43% | 2.30 |
| Draw | 46% | 2.17 | |
| Nkwazi | 11% | 9.51 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 8% | 13.20 |
| Under 2.5 | 92% | 1.08 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 12% | 8.47 |
| No | 88% | 1.13 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Red Arrows or draw) | 89% | 1.12 |
| 12 (either side) | 54% | 1.85 | |
| X2 (draw or Nkwazi) | 57% | 1.77 | |
| Handicap -1 | Red Arrows win by 2+ | 14% | 7.19 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 30% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Red Arrows and Nkwazi recent form
Red Arrows
3W 2D 1L
Nkwazi
0W 4D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Red Arrows at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-2-0
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 0.00
- Goals against / match
- 0.00
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 2
Nkwazi away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-1-0
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 0.00
- Goals against / match
- 0.00
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 1
- They have won 0 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 0.2 goals per match.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 5 matches.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 5 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: Red Arrows at home only, Nkwazi away only.
Red Arrows vs Nkwazi head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: Red Arrows 6 · draws 4 · Nkwazi 0.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-19 | Red Arrows | 0-0 | Nkwazi | Zambia Super League |
| 2025-10-25 | Nkwazi | 0-0 | Red Arrows | Zambia Super League |
| 2025-03-01 | Nkwazi | 0-0 | Red Arrows | Super League |
| 2024-10-26 | Red Arrows | 1-0 | Nkwazi | Super League |
| 2024-03-16 | Nkwazi | 0-1 | Red Arrows | Super League |
| 2023-10-21 | Red Arrows | 4-0 | Nkwazi | Super League |
| 2023-04-29 | Nkwazi | 0-0 | Red Arrows | Super League |
| 2022-11-19 | Red Arrows | 2-1 | Nkwazi | Super League |
| 2022-04-06 | Nkwazi | 2-3 | Red Arrows | Super League |
| 2021-11-20 | Red Arrows | 1-0 | Nkwazi | Super League |
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- Konkola Blades vs Trident 2026-11-05
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Before and after this match
- Red Arrows, previous: Red Arrows v Chirundu Utd analysis
- Nkwazi, previous: Nkwazi vs ZESCO United prediction