Central Coast Mariners vs Newcastle Jets: model vs market
| Source | Central Coast Mariners | Draw | Newcastle Jets |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 21% | 23% | 56% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 21% | 23% | 56% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.02 vs 1.18.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
Central Coast Mariners and Newcastle Jets expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.20
- Attack rating (Central Coast Mariners / Newcastle Jets)
- 0.93 / 1.25
- Defence rating (Central Coast Mariners / Newcastle Jets)
- 1.21 / 0.86
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Central Coast Mariners vs Newcastle Jets score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Central Coast Mariners goals. Columns: Newcastle Jets goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Central Coast Mariners vs Newcastle Jets goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 61%
- No goals (0–0)
- 5%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Central Coast Mariners vs Newcastle Jets
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Central Coast Mariners | 21% | 4.76 |
| Draw | 23% | 4.28 | |
| Newcastle Jets | 56% | 1.80 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 62% | 1.61 |
| Under 2.5 | 38% | 2.63 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 61% | 1.64 |
| No | 39% | 2.57 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Central Coast Mariners or draw) | 44% | 2.25 |
| 12 (either side) | 77% | 1.30 | |
| X2 (draw or Newcastle Jets) | 79% | 1.27 | |
| Handicap -1 | Newcastle Jets win by 2+ | 34% | 2.96 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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| 2 |  |
First deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
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| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
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| 4 |  |
200% first deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Central Coast Mariners and Newcastle Jets recent form
Central Coast Mariners
1W 2D 3L
Newcastle Jets
1W 4D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Central Coast Mariners vs Newcastle Jets head-to-head
Last 3 meetings: Central Coast Mariners 1 · draws 1 · Newcastle Jets 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-25 | Newcastle Jets | 4-0 | Central Coast Mariners | A-League |
| 2026-02-28 | Central Coast Mariners | 0-0 | Newcastle Jets | A-League |
| 2025-10-19 | Central Coast Mariners | 3-2 | Newcastle Jets | A-League |
Other Matchday 1 fixtures
- Sydney v Western Sydney Wanderers — match page 2026-10-16
- Auckland vs Melbourne City — team news & stats 2026-10-17
- Macarthur vs Perth Glory 2026-10-17