Macarthur vs Perth Glory Prediction & Betting Tips 17/10/2026

Macarthur vs Perth Glory preview

In the A-League fixture between Macarthur and Perth Glory, the 1X2 probabilities show Macarthur at 38%, draw at 24%, and Perth Glory also at 38%. The most likely scoreline is 2-1, which has an 8% chance of occurring. Both teams to score stands at 69%, while Over 2.5 goals is at 68%.

Macarthur's recent form is W-L-L-W-W-L, while Perth Glory has W-D-W-D-D-L. The expected goals are close, with Macarthur at 1.77 and Perth Glory at 1.75. The head-to-head record shows Macarthur with 0 wins, 1 draw, and Perth Glory with 2 wins in their last 3 encounters. The confidence grade for this match is C, indicating some uncertainty.

Macarthur vs Perth Glory: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
Source	Macarthur	Draw	Perth Glory
Model	38%	24%	38%
Market	—	—	—
Published	38%	24%	38%
Edge	—	—	—

Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).

Macarthur and Perth Glory expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.77Macarthur

1.75Perth Glory

Total expected goals: 3.52
Attack rating (Macarthur / Perth Glory): 1.18 / 0.97
Defence rating (Macarthur / Perth Glory): 1.36 / 1.01

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Macarthur vs Perth Glory score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 3.9% 4.3% 4.5% 2.7% 1.7% 1 4.3% 10.1% 8.0% 4.7% 3.1% 2 4.6% 8.1% 7.1% 4.1% 2.7% 3 2.7% 4.8% 4.2% 2.4% 1.6% 4+ 1.8% 3.2% 2.8% 1.6% 1.1%

Rows: Macarthur goals. Columns: Perth Glory goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Macarthur vs Perth Glory goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 96%

Over 1.5 88%

Over 2.5 68%

Over 3.5 47%

Both teams to score: 69%
No goals (0–0): 4%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Macarthur vs Perth Glory

Published probability and fair odds per market
Market	Selection	Probability	Fair odds
1X2	Macarthur	38%	2.61
	Draw	24%	4.16
	Perth Glory	38%	2.66
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	68%	1.46
	Under 2.5	32%	3.16
Both teams to score	Yes	69%	1.44
	No	31%	3.28
Double chance	1X (Macarthur or draw)	62%	1.60
	12 (either side)	76%	1.32
	X2 (draw or Perth Glory)	62%	1.62
Handicap -1	Macarthur win by 2+	20%	4.89
	Push (exactly one goal)	18%	—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

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Where to bet on this match in Kenya

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