Club Africain vs TP Mazembe Prediction & Betting Tips 25/10/2026

Club Africain vs TP Mazembe preview

In the CAF Champions League match between Club Africain and TP Mazembe, the 1X2 probabilities show Club Africain at 53%, a draw at 31%, and TP Mazembe at 16%. The most likely scoreline predicted is 1-0, which occurs with a 17% probability.

Club Africain has an expected goals figure of 1.36, while TP Mazembe's is lower at 0.64. The chances for Over 2.5 goals sit at 32%, and both teams to score is at 36%. A potential factor that could affect the outcome is Club Africain's recent form, which includes four wins in their last six matches, compared to TP Mazembe's two consecutive wins.

Club Africain vs TP Mazembe: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
Source	Club Africain	Draw	TP Mazembe
Model	53%	31%	17%
Market	—	—	—
Published	53%	31%	17%
Edge	—	—	—

Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.36 vs 0.64.
Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).

Club Africain and TP Mazembe expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.36Club Africain

0.64TP Mazembe

Total expected goals: 2.00
Attack rating (Club Africain / TP Mazembe): 1.23 / 1.30
Defence rating (Club Africain / TP Mazembe): 0.68 / 0.86

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Club Africain vs TP Mazembe score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 14.7% 7.5% 2.8% 0.6% 0.1% 1 17.2% 13.0% 3.8% 0.8% 0.1% 2 12.5% 8.0% 2.6% 0.6% 0.1% 3 5.6% 3.6% 1.2% 0.2% 0.0% 4+ 2.6% 1.7% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0%

Rows: Club Africain goals. Columns: TP Mazembe goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Club Africain vs TP Mazembe goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 85%

Over 1.5 61%

Over 2.5 32%

Over 3.5 14%

Both teams to score: 36%
No goals (0–0): 15%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Club Africain vs TP Mazembe

Published probability and fair odds per market
Market	Selection	Probability	Fair odds
1X2	Club Africain	53%	1.89
	Draw	31%	3.27
	TP Mazembe	17%	6.06
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	32%	3.10
	Under 2.5	68%	1.48
Both teams to score	Yes	36%	2.75
	No	64%	1.57
Double chance	1X (Club Africain or draw)	83%	1.20
	12 (either side)	69%	1.44
	X2 (draw or TP Mazembe)	47%	2.12
Handicap -1	Club Africain win by 2+	26%	3.78
	Push (exactly one goal)	26%	—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Compare the market for this pick

Where to bet on this match in Kenya

Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit

All betting sites

#	Welcome offer	Why it is here	Visit
1	50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply.	M-PESA Paybill 290059 Daily Jackpot Live betting	Get offer
2	First deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply.	1,000+ events every day Live betting around the clock 30+ markets on live events	Get offer
3	100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply.	M-Pesa and Airtel Money deposits Live in-play betting Android and iOS app	Get offer
4	200% first deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply.	1,000+ events every day 30+ markets on live events 24/7 customer support	Get offer