Azam vs Masr Prediction & Betting Tips 24/10/2026

Azam vs Masr preview

In the CAF Confederation Cup fixture between Azam and Masr, the 1X2 probabilities show Azam at 58% to win, while Masr sits at 16%. The most likely scoreline is 1-0, with a 14% chance of occurring. Azam's expected goals are 1.65 compared to Masr's 0.75, indicating a stronger offensive performance.

However, the match could deviate from this prediction if Masr manages to find the net, as both teams to score has a probability of 44%. Additionally, with 43% for Over 2.5 goals, a high-scoring game is still a possibility, especially if Azam's recent form of W-L-W-W-D-W continues to influence their performance.

Azam vs Masr: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
Source	Azam	Draw	Masr
Model	58%	27%	16%
Market	—	—	—
Published	58%	27%	16%
Edge	—	—	—

Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.65 vs 0.75.
Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 3 for the opposition.

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).

Azam and Masr expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.65Azam

0.75Masr

Total expected goals: 2.40
Attack rating (Azam / Masr): 1.31 / 1.14
Defence rating (Azam / Masr): 0.71 / 0.88

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Azam vs Masr score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 10.2% 5.7% 2.5% 0.6% 0.1% 1 13.9% 12.3% 4.2% 1.0% 0.2% 2 12.4% 9.2% 3.4% 0.9% 0.2% 3 6.8% 5.1% 1.9% 0.5% 0.1% 4+ 4.1% 3.0% 1.1% 0.3% 0.1%

Rows: Azam goals. Columns: Masr goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Azam vs Masr goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 90%

Over 1.5 70%

Over 2.5 43%

Over 3.5 22%

Both teams to score: 44%
No goals (0–0): 10%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Azam vs Masr

Published probability and fair odds per market
Market	Selection	Probability	Fair odds
1X2	Azam	58%	1.73
	Draw	27%	3.77
	Masr	16%	6.43
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	43%	2.33
	Under 2.5	57%	1.75
Both teams to score	Yes	44%	2.29
	No	56%	1.77
Double chance	1X (Azam or draw)	84%	1.18
	12 (either side)	73%	1.36
	X2 (draw or Masr)	42%	2.38
Handicap -1	Azam win by 2+	33%	3.06
	Push (exactly one goal)	25%	—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

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Where to bet on this match in Kenya

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