Kaizer Chiefs vs Red Arrows Prediction & Betting Tips 23/10/2026

Kaizer Chiefs vs Red Arrows preview

In the CAF Confederation Cup match between Kaizer Chiefs and Red Arrows, the 1X2 probabilities show Kaizer Chiefs at 30%, a draw at 38%, and Red Arrows at 32%. The most likely scoreline is 0-0, with a 21% chance, suggesting a low-scoring affair.

Both teams to score has a 32% probability, while Over 2.5 goals sits at just 22%. Expected goals are close, with Kaizer Chiefs at 0.78 and Red Arrows at 0.83. The recent form indicates Kaizer Chiefs have drawn their last three matches, while Red Arrows have won four of their last six. This could lead to a different outcome than predicted.

Kaizer Chiefs vs Red Arrows: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
Source	Kaizer Chiefs	Draw	Red Arrows
Model	28%	38%	34%
Market	—	—	—
Published	28%	38%	34%
Edge	—	—	—

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).

Kaizer Chiefs and Red Arrows expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

0.73Kaizer Chiefs

0.83Red Arrows

Total expected goals: 1.57
Attack rating (Kaizer Chiefs / Red Arrows): 1.06 / 1.09
Defence rating (Kaizer Chiefs / Red Arrows): 0.83 / 0.48

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Kaizer Chiefs vs Red Arrows score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 22.2% 16.1% 7.3% 2.0% 0.5% 1 14.0% 14.0% 5.3% 1.5% 0.4% 2 5.6% 4.7% 1.9% 0.5% 0.1% 3 1.4% 1.1% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 4+ 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%

Rows: Kaizer Chiefs goals. Columns: Red Arrows goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Kaizer Chiefs vs Red Arrows goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 78%

Over 1.5 48%

Over 2.5 21%

Over 3.5 7%

Both teams to score: 31%
No goals (0–0): 22%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Kaizer Chiefs vs Red Arrows

Published probability and fair odds per market
Market	Selection	Probability	Fair odds
1X2	Kaizer Chiefs	28%	3.58
	Draw	38%	2.61
	Red Arrows	34%	2.96
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	21%	4.81
	Under 2.5	79%	1.26
Both teams to score	Yes	31%	3.26
	No	69%	1.44
Double chance	1X (Kaizer Chiefs or draw)	66%	1.51
	12 (either side)	62%	1.62
	X2 (draw or Red Arrows)	72%	1.39
Handicap -1	Red Arrows win by 2+	12%	8.51
	Push (exactly one goal)	22%	—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

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Where to bet on this match in Kenya

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