Orlando Pirates vs Kaizer Chiefs preview
Orlando Pirates face Kaizer Chiefs with a strong 74% probability of winning, compared to just 5% for the Chiefs. The most likely scoreline is 1-0, with a 20% chance of that outcome. While Orlando Pirates have been in excellent form, winning their last 6 matches, Kaizer Chiefs have been inconsistent, with 3 draws in their last 5 games.
The model suggests a 37% chance of Over 2.5 goals and only a 24% chance for both teams to score. This could change if Kaizer Chiefs manage to improve their attack, as they have only an expected goals figure of 0.33. Overall, the confidence grade is C, indicating some uncertainty in the prediction.
Orlando Pirates vs Kaizer Chiefs: model vs market
| Source | Orlando Pirates | Draw | Kaizer Chiefs |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 74% | 21% | 5% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 74% | 21% | 5% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.83 vs 0.33.
- Better recent form: 6 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
Orlando Pirates and Kaizer Chiefs expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.16
- Attack rating (Orlando Pirates / Kaizer Chiefs)
- 1.90 / 1.07
- Defence rating (Orlando Pirates / Kaizer Chiefs)
- 0.34 / 0.85
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Orlando Pirates vs Kaizer Chiefs score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Orlando Pirates goals. Columns: Kaizer Chiefs goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Orlando Pirates vs Kaizer Chiefs goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 24%
- No goals (0–0)
- 12%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Orlando Pirates vs Kaizer Chiefs
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Orlando Pirates | 74% | 1.36 |
| Draw | 21% | 4.75 | |
| Kaizer Chiefs | 5% | 18.93 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 37% | 2.72 |
| Under 2.5 | 63% | 1.58 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 24% | 4.09 |
| No | 76% | 1.32 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Orlando Pirates or draw) | 95% | 1.06 |
| 12 (either side) | 79% | 1.27 | |
| X2 (draw or Kaizer Chiefs) | 26% | 3.80 | |
| Handicap -1 | Orlando Pirates win by 2+ | 46% | 2.16 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 27% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
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| 1 |  |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Orlando Pirates and Kaizer Chiefs recent form
Orlando Pirates
6W 0D 0L
Kaizer Chiefs
2W 3D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Orlando Pirates at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 4-0-0
- Win rate
- 100%
- Goals for / match
- 2.25
- Goals against / match
- 0.00
- Clean sheets
- 4 of 4
- They have won 6 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 2.3 goals per match.
- They average 2.5 goals per game on the road against 2.0 at home.
- They have kept 6 clean sheets in 7 matches.
Kaizer Chiefs away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-3-0
- Win rate
- 25%
- Goals for / match
- 1.50
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 4
- They have won 3 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.7 goals per match.
- They average 2.0 goals per game at home against 1.5 on the road.
League matches this season before kick-off: Orlando Pirates at home only, Kaizer Chiefs away only.
Orlando Pirates vs Kaizer Chiefs head-to-head
Last 2 meetings: Orlando Pirates 1 · draws 1 · Kaizer Chiefs 0.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-26 | Orlando Pirates | 1-1 | Kaizer Chiefs | Premier Soccer League |
| 2026-02-28 | Kaizer Chiefs | 0-3 | Orlando Pirates | Premier Soccer League |
Other Matchday 9 fixtures
- Marumo Gallants v Siwelele — match page 2026-10-30
- Stellenbosch vs Chippa United — team news & stats 2026-10-30
- Amazulu v Golden Arrows — match page 2026-10-31
- Polokwane City vs TS Galaxy — team news & stats 2026-10-31
Before and after this match
- Orlando Pirates, previous: Orlando Pirates vs African Stars: odds and pick
- Kaizer Chiefs, previous: Kaizer Chiefs – Red Arrows, 2026-10-23