Mamelodi Sundowns vs Durban City preview
Mamelodi Sundowns face Durban City with a 51% chance of winning, compared to 22% for Durban City. The most likely scoreline is 1-0, which occurs 11% of the time in our model. While Sundowns have a strong recent form of D-D-W-D-W-W, Durban City comes in with W-W-L-D-L-W.
The expected goals show Mamelodi Sundowns at 1.63 and Durban City at 0.99, suggesting a tight match. Both teams to score stands at 52%, indicating a possibility for goals from both sides. However, if Sundowns fail to convert their chances or if Durban City surprises with a strong performance, the predicted outcome may not hold.
Mamelodi Sundowns vs Durban City: model vs market
| Source | Mamelodi Sundowns | Draw | Durban City |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 51% | 27% | 22% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 51% | 27% | 22% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.63 vs 0.99.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
Mamelodi Sundowns and Durban City expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.62
- Attack rating (Mamelodi Sundowns / Durban City)
- 1.76 / 1.18
- Defence rating (Mamelodi Sundowns / Durban City)
- 0.90 / 0.81
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Mamelodi Sundowns vs Durban City score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Mamelodi Sundowns goals. Columns: Durban City goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Mamelodi Sundowns vs Durban City goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 52%
- No goals (0–0)
- 8%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Mamelodi Sundowns vs Durban City
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Mamelodi Sundowns | 51% | 1.96 |
| Draw | 27% | 3.69 | |
| Durban City | 22% | 4.57 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 49% | 2.05 |
| Under 2.5 | 51% | 1.95 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 52% | 1.93 |
| No | 48% | 2.07 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Mamelodi Sundowns or draw) | 78% | 1.28 |
| 12 (either side) | 73% | 1.37 | |
| X2 (draw or Durban City) | 49% | 2.04 | |
| Handicap -1 | Mamelodi Sundowns win by 2+ | 28% | 3.59 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
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| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Mamelodi Sundowns and Durban City recent form
Mamelodi Sundowns
3W 3D 0L
Durban City
3W 1D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Mamelodi Sundowns at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 4-0-0
- Win rate
- 100%
- Goals for / match
- 3.00
- Goals against / match
- 0.50
- Clean sheets
- 3 of 4
- They have won 6 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 2.4 goals per match.
- They average 3.0 goals per game at home against 1.8 on the road.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 8 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 5 matches.
Durban City away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-1-2
- Win rate
- 25%
- Goals for / match
- 0.75
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 4
- They have won 1 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 0.6 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 7 matches.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 7 matches.
- 30% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Mamelodi Sundowns at home only, Durban City away only.
Mamelodi Sundowns vs Durban City head-to-head
Last 2 meetings: Mamelodi Sundowns 2 · draws 0 · Durban City 0.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-07 | Durban City | 0-1 | Mamelodi Sundowns | Premier Soccer League |
| 2025-09-20 | Mamelodi Sundowns | 3-1 | Durban City | Premier Soccer League |
Other Matchday 9 fixtures
- Marumo Gallants v Siwelele — match page 2026-10-30
- Stellenbosch vs Chippa United — team news & stats 2026-10-30
- Orlando Pirates vs Kaizer Chiefs 2026-10-31
- Amazulu v Golden Arrows — match page 2026-10-31
- Polokwane City vs TS Galaxy — team news & stats 2026-10-31
- Kruger United vs Richards Bay 2026-10-31
- Milford FC vs Sekhukhune United — team news & stats 2026-11-01
Before and after this match
- Mamelodi Sundowns, previous: Mamelodi Sundowns vs Wiliete prediction
- Durban City, previous: ASPL 2000 v Durban City analysis