Red Arrows vs Chirundu Utd Prediction & Betting Tips 31/10/2026

Red Arrows vs Chirundu Utd preview

In the Zambia Super League fixture, Red Arrows have a 52% chance to win against Chirundu Utd, who sit at 14%. The most likely scoreline is 1-0, with a 22% probability. Red Arrows have been in good form, winning 4 of their last 6 matches, while Chirundu Utd has only 1 win in their last 3 games.

The model predicts Red Arrows will score around 1.16 expected goals, while Chirundu Utd is expected to net just 0.46. This suggests a low-scoring match, with only a 22% chance for Over 2.5 goals and a 26% chance for both teams to score. A surprising performance from Chirundu Utd or an off day for Red Arrows could change the expected outcome.

Red Arrows vs Chirundu Utd: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
Source	Red Arrows	Draw	Chirundu Utd
Model	48%	37%	15%
Market	—	—	—
Published	48%	37%	15%
Edge	—	—	—

Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.02 vs 0.46.
Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).

Red Arrows and Chirundu Utd expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.02Red Arrows

0.46Chirundu Utd

Total expected goals: 1.48
Attack rating (Red Arrows / Chirundu Utd): 1.22 / 1.09
Defence rating (Red Arrows / Chirundu Utd): 0.60 / 0.77

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Red Arrows vs Chirundu Utd score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 23.9% 9.5% 2.4% 0.4% 0.0% 1 22.1% 11.8% 2.5% 0.4% 0.0% 2 11.8% 5.4% 1.3% 0.2% 0.0% 3 4.0% 1.8% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 4+ 1.3% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%

Rows: Red Arrows goals. Columns: Chirundu Utd goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Red Arrows vs Chirundu Utd goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 76%

Over 1.5 45%

Over 2.5 19%

Over 3.5 6%

Both teams to score: 25%
No goals (0–0): 24%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Red Arrows vs Chirundu Utd

Published probability and fair odds per market
Market	Selection	Probability	Fair odds
1X2	Red Arrows	48%	2.10
	Draw	37%	2.70
	Chirundu Utd	15%	6.48
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	19%	5.39
	Under 2.5	81%	1.23
Both teams to score	Yes	25%	4.06
	No	75%	1.33
Double chance	1X (Red Arrows or draw)	85%	1.18
	12 (either side)	63%	1.59
	X2 (draw or Chirundu Utd)	52%	1.91
Handicap -1	Red Arrows win by 2+	20%	5.10
	Push (exactly one goal)	28%	—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

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