Nkwazi vs ZESCO United Prediction & Betting Tips 31/10/2026

Nkwazi vs ZESCO United preview

Nkwazi faces ZESCO United with a 22% chance of winning compared to ZESCO's 36%. The most likely scoreline is 0-0 at 28%. Nkwazi's recent form shows 3 draws and 2 losses, while ZESCO United has 2 wins and 1 draw in their last 3 matches.

With expected goals at 0.54 for Nkwazi and 0.76 for ZESCO United, the low probabilities for Over 2.5 goals at 14% and both teams to score at 23% suggest a tight match. A draw is also a strong possibility with a 42% chance. If Nkwazi can improve their scoring, they may change the outcome.

Nkwazi vs ZESCO United: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
Source	Nkwazi	Draw	ZESCO United
Model	22%	42%	36%
Market	—	—	—
Published	22%	42%	36%
Edge	—	—	—

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).

Nkwazi and ZESCO United expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

0.54Nkwazi

0.76ZESCO United

Total expected goals: 1.30
Attack rating (Nkwazi / ZESCO United): 0.66 / 1.61
Defence rating (Nkwazi / ZESCO United): 0.67 / 0.75

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Nkwazi vs ZESCO United score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 28.5% 19.7% 7.9% 2.0% 0.4% 1 13.6% 12.3% 4.2% 1.1% 0.2% 2 3.9% 3.0% 1.1% 0.3% 0.1% 3 0.7% 0.5% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 4+ 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Rows: Nkwazi goals. Columns: ZESCO United goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Nkwazi vs ZESCO United goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 72%

Over 1.5 38%

Over 2.5 14%

Over 3.5 4%

Both teams to score: 23%
No goals (0–0): 28%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Nkwazi vs ZESCO United

Published probability and fair odds per market
Market	Selection	Probability	Fair odds
1X2	Nkwazi	22%	4.51
	Draw	42%	2.38
	ZESCO United	36%	2.79
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	14%	7.05
	Under 2.5	86%	1.17
Both teams to score	Yes	23%	4.31
	No	77%	1.30
Double chance	1X (Nkwazi or draw)	64%	1.56
	12 (either side)	58%	1.72
	X2 (draw or ZESCO United)	78%	1.28
Handicap -1	ZESCO United win by 2+	12%	8.55
	Push (exactly one goal)	24%	—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

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Where to bet on this match in Kenya

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