Green Eagles vs Kabwe Warriors Prediction & Betting Tips 31/10/2026

Green Eagles vs Kabwe Warriors preview

Green Eagles face Kabwe Warriors with a 57% chance of winning according to our model. The most likely scoreline is 1-0, which occurs 18% of the time in our predictions. Green Eagles have an expected goals figure of 1.44, while Kabwe Warriors sit at 0.58.

However, the match could turn if both teams manage to score, as our model shows a 35% chance for both teams to score. Recent form also suggests a mixed performance, with Green Eagles having 2 wins in their last 6 matches, while Kabwe Warriors have drawn 4 of their last 6. This adds uncertainty to the outcome, despite the statistical edge for Green Eagles.

Green Eagles vs Kabwe Warriors: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
Source	Green Eagles	Draw	Kabwe Warriors
Model	61%	27%	12%
Market	—	—	—
Published	61%	27%	12%
Edge	—	—	—

Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.58 vs 0.56.
Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).

Green Eagles and Kabwe Warriors expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.58Green Eagles

0.56Kabwe Warriors

Total expected goals: 2.14
Attack rating (Green Eagles / Kabwe Warriors): 1.10 / 1.14
Defence rating (Green Eagles / Kabwe Warriors): 0.70 / 1.32

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Green Eagles vs Kabwe Warriors score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 12.8% 5.6% 1.9% 0.3% 0.1% 1 17.5% 11.5% 2.9% 0.5% 0.1% 2 14.6% 8.2% 2.3% 0.4% 0.1% 3 7.7% 4.3% 1.2% 0.2% 0.0% 4+ 4.3% 2.4% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0%

Rows: Green Eagles goals. Columns: Kabwe Warriors goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Green Eagles vs Kabwe Warriors goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 87%

Over 1.5 64%

Over 2.5 36%

Over 3.5 17%

Both teams to score: 35%
No goals (0–0): 13%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Green Eagles vs Kabwe Warriors

Published probability and fair odds per market
Market	Selection	Probability	Fair odds
1X2	Green Eagles	61%	1.63
	Draw	27%	3.73
	Kabwe Warriors	12%	8.38
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	36%	2.77
	Under 2.5	64%	1.57
Both teams to score	Yes	35%	2.84
	No	65%	1.54
Double chance	1X (Green Eagles or draw)	88%	1.14
	12 (either side)	73%	1.37
	X2 (draw or Kabwe Warriors)	39%	2.58
Handicap -1	Green Eagles win by 2+	34%	2.93
	Push (exactly one goal)	27%	—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

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Where to bet on this match in Kenya

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