Nchanga Rangers vs Man Utd Zambia Academy preview
In the Zambia Super League fixture, Nchanga Rangers face Man Utd Zambia Academy with 21% chances for Nchanga Rangers to win, 32% for a draw, and 47% for Man Utd Zambia Academy. The most likely scoreline is 0-1, with a 15% probability. Nchanga Rangers have struggled recently, with 5 losses and 1 draw in their last 6 matches, while Man Utd Zambia Academy has won 4 of their last 6.
The expected goals show Nchanga Rangers at 0.76 and Man Utd Zambia Academy at 1.28. With 33% for Over 2.5 goals and 40% for both teams to score, the match could produce more goals if Nchanga Rangers can improve their attacking output. However, their recent form raises concerns about their ability to compete effectively.
Nchanga Rangers vs Man Utd Zambia Academy: model vs market
| Source | Nchanga Rangers | Draw | Man Utd Zambia Academy |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 21% | 34% | 45% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 21% | 34% | 45% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.12 vs 0.68.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
Nchanga Rangers and Man Utd Zambia Academy expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 1.80
- Attack rating (Nchanga Rangers / Man Utd Zambia Academy)
- 0.70 / 1.42
- Defence rating (Nchanga Rangers / Man Utd Zambia Academy)
- 1.12 / 0.89
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Nchanga Rangers vs Man Utd Zambia Academy score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Nchanga Rangers goals. Columns: Man Utd Zambia Academy goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Nchanga Rangers vs Man Utd Zambia Academy goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 34%
- No goals (0–0)
- 18%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Nchanga Rangers vs Man Utd Zambia Academy
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Nchanga Rangers | 21% | 4.76 |
| Draw | 34% | 2.92 | |
| Man Utd Zambia Academy | 45% | 2.24 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 27% | 3.72 |
| Under 2.5 | 73% | 1.37 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 34% | 2.90 |
| No | 66% | 1.53 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Nchanga Rangers or draw) | 55% | 1.81 |
| 12 (either side) | 66% | 1.52 | |
| X2 (draw or Man Utd Zambia Academy) | 79% | 1.27 | |
| Handicap -1 | Man Utd Zambia Academy win by 2+ | 19% | 5.13 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 25% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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| 2 |  |
First deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
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| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
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| 4 |  |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Nchanga Rangers and Man Utd Zambia Academy recent form
Nchanga Rangers
1W 0D 5L
Man Utd Zambia Academy
4W 1D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Nchanga Rangers at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-0-1
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 0.00
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 1
Man Utd Zambia Academy away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-1-0
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 1.00
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 1
League matches this season before kick-off: Nchanga Rangers at home only, Man Utd Zambia Academy away only.
Nchanga Rangers vs Man Utd Zambia Academy head-to-head
Last 2 meetings: Nchanga Rangers 1 · draws 0 · Man Utd Zambia Academy 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-08 | Man Utd Zambia Academy | 2-1 | Nchanga Rangers | Zambia Super League |
| 2025-11-02 | Nchanga Rangers | 1-0 | Man Utd Zambia Academy | Zambia Super League |
Other Matchday 6 fixtures
- Green Eagles vs Kabwe Warriors 2026-10-31
- Nkwazi v ZESCO United — match page 2026-10-31
- Power Dynamos vs Nkana — team news & stats 2026-10-31
- Red Arrows vs Chirundu Utd 2026-10-31
- Kansanshi Dynamos vs NAPSA Stars — team news & stats 2026-10-31
- Trident vs Zanaco 2026-10-31
- Green Buffaloes v Mufulira Wanderers — match page 2026-11-01
- Mutondo Stars vs Roan United — team news & stats 2026-11-01
Before and after this match
- Nchanga Rangers, previous: NAPSA Stars vs Nchanga Rangers prediction
- Man Utd Zambia Academy, previous: Man Utd Zambia Academy v Power Dynamos analysis