Mutondo Stars vs Roan United Prediction & Betting Tips 01/11/2026

Mutondo Stars vs Roan United preview

In the Zambia Super League fixture between Mutondo Stars and Roan United, the 1X2 probabilities show Roan United at 43% to win, compared to 26% for Mutondo Stars. The most likely scoreline is 0-1, which occurs at a rate of 13%. Mutondo Stars have struggled recently, with five losses followed by one win, while Roan United's recent form includes one win and a draw.

The expected goals indicate Mutondo Stars at 0.93 and Roan United at 1.26, suggesting that Roan United is more likely to score. However, the 45% chance for both teams to score and the 38% for Over 2.5 goals could challenge the outcome if Mutondo Stars find their scoring touch.

Mutondo Stars vs Roan United: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
Source	Mutondo Stars	Draw	Roan United
Model	26%	31%	43%
Market	—	—	—
Published	26%	31%	43%
Edge	—	—	—

Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.26 vs 0.93.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).

Mutondo Stars and Roan United expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

0.93Mutondo Stars

1.26Roan United

Total expected goals: 2.19
Attack rating (Mutondo Stars / Roan United): 0.94 / 0.88
Defence rating (Mutondo Stars / Roan United): 2.06 / 0.90

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Mutondo Stars vs Roan United score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 12.5% 12.8% 8.9% 3.8% 1.6% 1 9.1% 14.4% 8.3% 3.5% 1.5% 2 4.8% 6.1% 3.8% 1.6% 0.7% 3 1.5% 1.9% 1.2% 0.5% 0.2% 4+ 0.4% 0.5% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1%

Rows: Mutondo Stars goals. Columns: Roan United goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Mutondo Stars vs Roan United goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 88%

Over 1.5 66%

Over 2.5 38%

Over 3.5 18%

Both teams to score: 45%
No goals (0–0): 12%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Mutondo Stars vs Roan United

Published probability and fair odds per market
Market	Selection	Probability	Fair odds
1X2	Mutondo Stars	26%	3.86
	Draw	31%	3.20
	Roan United	43%	2.34
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	38%	2.67
	Under 2.5	62%	1.60
Both teams to score	Yes	45%	2.24
	No	55%	1.81
Double chance	1X (Mutondo Stars or draw)	57%	1.75
	12 (either side)	69%	1.46
	X2 (draw or Roan United)	74%	1.35
Handicap -1	Roan United win by 2+	20%	5.02
	Push (exactly one goal)	23%	—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

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Where to bet on this match in Kenya

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