Green Buffaloes vs Mufulira Wanderers Prediction & Betting Tips 01/11/2026

Green Buffaloes vs Mufulira Wanderers preview

In the upcoming fixture, Green Buffaloes have a 55% probability of winning against Mufulira Wanderers, who sit at just 9%. The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 1-0, which occurs 27% of the time. This suggests a low-scoring match, supported by the expected goals of 1.05 for Green Buffaloes and only 0.27 for Mufulira Wanderers.

However, the recent form shows Green Buffaloes have won only 2 of their last 6 matches, while Mufulira Wanderers have not won in their last 6 outings, with 4 losses. Both teams to score is at 16%, and Over 2.5 goals is only at 15%. These numbers indicate that while Green Buffaloes are favored, surprises can happen in football.

Green Buffaloes vs Mufulira Wanderers: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
Source	Green Buffaloes	Draw	Mufulira Wanderers
Model	55%	36%	9%
Market	—	—	—
Published	55%	36%	9%
Edge	—	—	—

Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.05 vs 0.27.
Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).

Green Buffaloes and Mufulira Wanderers expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.05Green Buffaloes

0.27Mufulira Wanderers

Total expected goals: 1.32
Attack rating (Green Buffaloes / Mufulira Wanderers): 0.83 / 0.53
Defence rating (Green Buffaloes / Mufulira Wanderers): 0.73 / 1.16

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Green Buffaloes vs Mufulira Wanderers score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 27.4% 6.4% 1.0% 0.1% 0.0% 1 27.3% 8.3% 1.0% 0.1% 0.0% 2 14.8% 4.0% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 3 5.2% 1.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 4+ 1.7% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%

Rows: Green Buffaloes goals. Columns: Mufulira Wanderers goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Green Buffaloes vs Mufulira Wanderers goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 73%

Over 1.5 39%

Over 2.5 15%

Over 3.5 5%

Both teams to score: 16%
No goals (0–0): 27%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Green Buffaloes vs Mufulira Wanderers

Published probability and fair odds per market
Market	Selection	Probability	Fair odds
1X2	Green Buffaloes	55%	1.82
	Draw	36%	2.76
	Mufulira Wanderers	9%	11.59
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	15%	6.77
	Under 2.5	85%	1.17
Both teams to score	Yes	16%	6.22
	No	84%	1.19
Double chance	1X (Green Buffaloes or draw)	91%	1.09
	12 (either side)	64%	1.57
	X2 (draw or Mufulira Wanderers)	45%	2.23
Handicap -1	Green Buffaloes win by 2+	24%	4.24
	Push (exactly one goal)	31%	—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

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Where to bet on this match in Kenya

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