Singida Black Stars vs Tusker Prediction & Betting Tips 25/10/2026

Singida Black Stars vs Tusker preview

In the CAF Confederation Cup match between Singida Black Stars and Tusker, the 1X2 probabilities show Singida Black Stars at 59%, with a most likely scoreline of 1-0 at 12%. The expected goals indicate Singida Black Stars at 1.80 and Tusker at 0.85, suggesting a potential edge for the home side.

However, both teams to score and Over 2.5 goals are at 49%, meaning there is a significant chance that the match could be low-scoring. Singida Black Stars' recent form includes two wins in their last three matches, while Tusker has struggled with only one win in their last six. This could impact the outcome and scoring potential.

Singida Black Stars vs Tusker: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
Source	Singida Black Stars	Draw	Tusker
Model	59%	25%	16%
Market	—	—	—
Published	59%	25%	16%
Edge	—	—	—

Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.80 vs 0.85.
Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).

Singida Black Stars and Tusker expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.80Singida Black Stars

0.85Tusker

Total expected goals: 2.65
Attack rating (Singida Black Stars / Tusker): 1.72 / 0.87
Defence rating (Singida Black Stars / Tusker): 1.07 / 0.73

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Singida Black Stars vs Tusker score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 8.2% 4.9% 2.6% 0.7% 0.2% 1 11.7% 11.9% 4.6% 1.3% 0.3% 2 11.4% 9.7% 4.1% 1.2% 0.3% 3 6.9% 5.8% 2.5% 0.7% 0.2% 4+ 4.6% 3.9% 1.7% 0.5% 0.1%

Rows: Singida Black Stars goals. Columns: Tusker goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Singida Black Stars vs Tusker goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 92%

Over 1.5 75%

Over 2.5 49%

Over 3.5 27%

Both teams to score: 49%
No goals (0–0): 8%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Singida Black Stars vs Tusker

Published probability and fair odds per market
Market	Selection	Probability	Fair odds
1X2	Singida Black Stars	59%	1.70
	Draw	25%	4.00
	Tusker	16%	6.14
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	49%	2.03
	Under 2.5	51%	1.97
Both teams to score	Yes	49%	2.05
	No	51%	1.95
Double chance	1X (Singida Black Stars or draw)	84%	1.19
	12 (either side)	75%	1.33
	X2 (draw or Tusker)	41%	2.42
Handicap -1	Singida Black Stars win by 2+	35%	2.90
	Push (exactly one goal)	24%	—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

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Where to bet on this match in Kenya

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