Mathare United vs Tusker Prediction & Betting Tips 29/10/2026

Mathare United vs Tusker preview

In the upcoming match between Mathare United and Tusker, the 1X2 probabilities show Mathare United at 28%, a draw at 38%, and Tusker at 34%. The most likely scoreline from our model is 0-0, which has a 22% chance of occurring.

Both teams have struggled recently, with Mathare United recording 1 win in their last 5 matches, while Tusker has 2 wins in the same period. The expected goals are low, with Mathare United at 0.75 and Tusker at 0.85. This suggests that scoring might be a challenge, which could affect the chances of Over 2.5 goals (22%) and both teams to score (31%).

Mathare United vs Tusker: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
Source	Mathare United	Draw	Tusker
Model	28%	38%	34%
Market	—	—	—
Published	28%	38%	34%
Edge	—	—	—

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).

Mathare United and Tusker expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

0.75Mathare United

0.85Tusker

Total expected goals: 1.60
Attack rating (Mathare United / Tusker): 0.88 / 0.85
Defence rating (Mathare United / Tusker): 1.00 / 0.83

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Mathare United vs Tusker score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 21.6% 15.8% 7.2% 2.0% 0.5% 1 13.9% 14.1% 5.4% 1.5% 0.4% 2 5.7% 4.8% 2.0% 0.6% 0.1% 3 1.4% 1.2% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 4+ 0.3% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%

Rows: Mathare United goals. Columns: Tusker goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Mathare United vs Tusker goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 78%

Over 1.5 49%

Over 2.5 22%

Over 3.5 8%

Both teams to score: 31%
No goals (0–0): 22%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Mathare United vs Tusker

Published probability and fair odds per market
Market	Selection	Probability	Fair odds
1X2	Mathare United	28%	3.53
	Draw	38%	2.64
	Tusker	34%	2.96
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	22%	4.64
	Under 2.5	78%	1.27
Both teams to score	Yes	31%	3.18
	No	69%	1.46
Double chance	1X (Mathare United or draw)	66%	1.51
	12 (either side)	62%	1.61
	X2 (draw or Tusker)	72%	1.40
Handicap -1	Tusker win by 2+	12%	8.43
	Push (exactly one goal)	22%	—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

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Where to bet on this match in Kenya

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