APS Bomet vs 3K Prediction & Betting Tips 28/10/2026

APS Bomet vs 3K preview

In the upcoming match between APS Bomet and 3K, the 1X2 probabilities show APS Bomet at 47%, while 3K stands at 19%. The most likely scoreline predicted is 1-0, with an 18% chance. APS Bomet's expected goals are 1.16, compared to 3K's 0.65, indicating a stronger attacking performance.

However, the match could turn if both teams manage to find the net, as the probability for both teams to score is 34%. Additionally, with only a 27% chance for Over 2.5 goals, a low-scoring game is more likely. Recent form shows APS Bomet with two wins in their last five matches, while 3K has drawn in their last two outings.

APS Bomet vs 3K: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
Source	APS Bomet	Draw	3K
Model	47%	34%	19%
Market	—	—	—
Published	47%	34%	19%
Edge	—	—	—

Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.16 vs 0.65.
Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).

APS Bomet and 3K expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.16APS Bomet

0.653K

Total expected goals: 1.81
Attack rating (APS Bomet / 3K): 1.00 / 1.13
Defence rating (APS Bomet / 3K): 0.58 / 1.13

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

APS Bomet vs 3K score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 17.5% 9.4% 3.5% 0.8% 0.1% 1 17.7% 13.6% 4.0% 0.9% 0.2% 2 11.0% 7.2% 2.3% 0.5% 0.1% 3 4.3% 2.8% 0.9% 0.2% 0.0% 4+ 1.6% 1.0% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0%

Rows: APS Bomet goals. Columns: 3K goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

APS Bomet vs 3K goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 82%

Over 1.5 55%

Over 2.5 27%

Over 3.5 11%

Both teams to score: 34%
No goals (0–0): 18%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for APS Bomet vs 3K

Published probability and fair odds per market
Market	Selection	Probability	Fair odds
1X2	APS Bomet	47%	2.13
	Draw	34%	2.97
	3K	19%	5.15
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	27%	3.66
	Under 2.5	73%	1.38
Both teams to score	Yes	34%	2.93
	No	66%	1.52
Double chance	1X (APS Bomet or draw)	81%	1.24
	12 (either side)	66%	1.51
	X2 (draw or 3K)	53%	1.88
Handicap -1	APS Bomet win by 2+	21%	4.74
	Push (exactly one goal)	26%	—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

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Where to bet on this match in Kenya

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