Police vs Ulinzi Stars Prediction & Betting Tips 29/10/2026

Police vs Ulinzi Stars preview

In the upcoming match between Police and Ulinzi Stars, the 1X2 probabilities show Police at 37%, a draw at 34%, and Ulinzi Stars at 29%. The most likely scoreline is 1-0 in favor of Police, which has a 14% chance according to our model.

Both teams have had mixed recent form, with Police recording 6 games without a win (L-D-D-D-D-D) and Ulinzi Stars showing some improvement with 3 wins in their last 6 matches (D-L-W-W-W-L). While the expected goals suggest a close contest with Police at 1.06 and Ulinzi Stars at 0.89, the lower likelihood of Over 2.5 goals at 31% and both teams to score at 40% indicates that a low-scoring match is more probable.

Police vs Ulinzi Stars: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
Source	Police	Draw	Ulinzi Stars
Model	37%	34%	29%
Market	—	—	—
Published	37%	34%	29%
Edge	—	—	—

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).

Police and Ulinzi Stars expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.06Police

0.89Ulinzi Stars

Total expected goals: 1.95
Attack rating (Police / Ulinzi Stars): 1.03 / 1.06
Defence rating (Police / Ulinzi Stars): 0.85 / 1.00

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Police vs Ulinzi Stars score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 15.5% 11.3% 5.7% 1.7% 0.5% 1 13.7% 14.8% 6.0% 1.8% 0.5% 2 8.0% 7.1% 3.2% 0.9% 0.3% 3 2.8% 2.5% 1.1% 0.3% 0.1% 4+ 0.9% 0.8% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0%

Rows: Police goals. Columns: Ulinzi Stars goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Police vs Ulinzi Stars goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 84%

Over 1.5 59%

Over 2.5 31%

Over 3.5 13%

Both teams to score: 40%
No goals (0–0): 16%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Police vs Ulinzi Stars

Published probability and fair odds per market
Market	Selection	Probability	Fair odds
1X2	Police	37%	2.67
	Draw	34%	2.96
	Ulinzi Stars	29%	3.49
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	31%	3.22
	Under 2.5	69%	1.45
Both teams to score	Yes	40%	2.50
	No	60%	1.67
Double chance	1X (Police or draw)	71%	1.40
	12 (either side)	66%	1.51
	X2 (draw or Ulinzi Stars)	63%	1.60
Handicap -1	Police win by 2+	15%	6.46
	Push (exactly one goal)	22%	—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

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Where to bet on this match in Kenya

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