Shabana vs Migori Youth Prediction & Betting Tips 28/10/2026

Shabana vs Migori Youth preview

In the Kenyan Premier League fixture between Shabana and Migori Youth, the 1X2 probabilities show Shabana at 28%, a draw at 38%, and Migori Youth at 34%. The most likely scoreline is 0-0, with a 22% chance according to our model.

Both teams have struggled to score, with expected goals of 0.73 for Shabana and 0.85 for Migori Youth. The chances of Over 2.5 goals stand at just 21%, while both teams to score is at 31%. Recent form indicates Shabana has two draws, one win, and two losses, while Migori Youth has only drawn their last match. This could lead to a low-scoring game, but any unexpected offensive performance could change the outcome.

Shabana vs Migori Youth: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
Source	Shabana	Draw	Migori Youth
Model	28%	38%	34%
Market	—	—	—
Published	28%	38%	34%
Edge	—	—	—

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).

Shabana and Migori Youth expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

0.73Shabana

0.85Migori Youth

Total expected goals: 1.59
Attack rating (Shabana / Migori Youth): 0.71 / 1.00
Defence rating (Shabana / Migori Youth): 0.86 / 1.00

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Shabana vs Migori Youth score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 21.7% 16.2% 7.4% 2.1% 0.5% 1 13.7% 14.1% 5.5% 1.6% 0.4% 2 5.5% 4.7% 2.0% 0.6% 0.1% 3 1.4% 1.2% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 4+ 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%

Rows: Shabana goals. Columns: Migori Youth goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Shabana vs Migori Youth goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 78%

Over 1.5 48%

Over 2.5 21%

Over 3.5 8%

Both teams to score: 31%
No goals (0–0): 22%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Shabana vs Migori Youth

Published probability and fair odds per market
Market	Selection	Probability	Fair odds
1X2	Shabana	28%	3.62
	Draw	38%	2.63
	Migori Youth	34%	2.91
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	21%	4.69
	Under 2.5	79%	1.27
Both teams to score	Yes	31%	3.21
	No	69%	1.45
Double chance	1X (Shabana or draw)	66%	1.52
	12 (either side)	62%	1.61
	X2 (draw or Migori Youth)	72%	1.38
Handicap -1	Migori Youth win by 2+	12%	8.21
	Push (exactly one goal)	22%	—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

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Where to bet on this match in Kenya

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