Murang'a SEAL vs Nairobi United Prediction & Betting Tips 28/10/2026

Murang'a SEAL vs Nairobi United preview

In the match between Murang'a SEAL and Nairobi United, the 1X2 probabilities show Nairobi United at 40%, while Murang'a SEAL stands at 34%. The most likely scoreline is 1-2, with a 9% chance. Both teams have shown varying forms recently, with Murang'a SEAL winning 4 of their last 6 matches, while Nairobi United has drawn 4 of their last 6.

The model indicates a strong possibility for Over 2.5 goals at 59% and both teams to score at 63%. However, if Murang'a SEAL can tighten their defense or if Nairobi United continues to struggle for wins, these predictions could change. The confidence grade is C, suggesting some uncertainty in the outcome.

Murang'a SEAL vs Nairobi United: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
Source	Murang'a SEAL	Draw	Nairobi United
Model	34%	26%	40%
Market	—	—	—
Published	34%	26%	40%
Edge	—	—	—

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).

Murang'a SEAL and Nairobi United expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.47Murang'a SEAL

1.61Nairobi United

Total expected goals: 3.08
Attack rating (Murang'a SEAL / Nairobi United): 1.50 / 1.14
Defence rating (Murang'a SEAL / Nairobi United): 1.43 / 0.95

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Murang'a SEAL vs Nairobi United score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 5.7% 6.3% 6.0% 3.2% 1.8% 1 5.7% 12.0% 8.8% 4.7% 2.7% 2 5.0% 8.0% 6.4% 3.4% 2.0% 3 2.4% 3.9% 3.1% 1.7% 1.0% 4+ 1.2% 2.0% 1.6% 0.9% 0.5%

Rows: Murang'a SEAL goals. Columns: Nairobi United goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Murang'a SEAL vs Nairobi United goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 94%

Over 1.5 82%

Over 2.5 59%

Over 3.5 37%

Both teams to score: 63%
No goals (0–0): 6%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Murang'a SEAL vs Nairobi United

Published probability and fair odds per market
Market	Selection	Probability	Fair odds
1X2	Murang'a SEAL	34%	2.95
	Draw	26%	3.84
	Nairobi United	40%	2.50
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	59%	1.68
	Under 2.5	41%	2.46
Both teams to score	Yes	63%	1.60
	No	37%	2.68
Double chance	1X (Murang'a SEAL or draw)	60%	1.67
	12 (either side)	74%	1.35
	X2 (draw or Nairobi United)	66%	1.51
Handicap -1	Nairobi United win by 2+	21%	4.82
	Push (exactly one goal)	19%	—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

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Where to bet on this match in Kenya

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